ODD Ballklubb 1-2 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ham-Kam at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Ham-Kam travel to Skagerak Arena to take on ODD Ballklubb. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 July 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, ODD Ballklubb stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ODD Ballklubb at Skagerak Arena this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — ODD Ballklubb are significantly better at Skagerak Arena than their overall form suggests.
Ham-Kam — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ham-Kam have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Ham-Kam are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. ODD Ballklubb register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Ham-Kam in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: ODD Ballklubb have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 4 past contests while Ham-Kam have managed just 0 wins.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 2–0 with ODD Ballklubb winning.
The historical record gives ODD Ballklubb a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
ODD Ballklubb in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Ham-Kam in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 54% versus Ham-Kam 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 54% | Ham-Kam 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.28 xG and Ham-Kam 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.947 / defence 1.213 | Ham-Kam attack 1.009 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.449. Data: 44 ODD Ballklubb games / 44 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 28% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 49%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 3.57 | Draw 4.17 | Ham-Kam 2.04. Ham-Kam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.28 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
ODD Ballklubb dominate the H2H record, yet Ham-Kam are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Ham-Kam are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 70% | Ham-Kam 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jul 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 28% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.28 / Ham-Kam 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.947 / def 1.213 | Ham-Kam attack 1.009 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.449 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Ham-Kam xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 July 2024 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam?
ODD Ballklubb 1 - 2 Ham-Kam.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 28% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 49% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Ham-Kam?
Record (4 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 4W | Draws 0 | Ham-Kam 0W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Ham-Kam in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Ham-Kam (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from ODD Ballklubb's attack rating (0.95) and Ham-Kam's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ham-Kam's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
28%
3.62
24%
4.24
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
3.06
1.77
Ham-Kam xG
3.62
28%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
17%
5.89
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
5%
21.34
14%
7.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.3 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.7 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.9 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.77 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, ODD Ballklubb have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 13W 13D 18L record — D-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ham-Kam's form line: 13W 9D 22L from 44 games, 1.09 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-D. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: ODD Ballklubb on 1.18 PPG, Ham-Kam on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, ODD Ballklubb have posted 1.41 PPG from 22 outings (8W 7D 7L).
On the road, Ham-Kam have gone 6W 4D 12L from 22 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ODD Ballklubb come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.25 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Ham-Kam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 13W 13D 18L in their last 44 games (1.18 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 13W 9D 22L in their last 44 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Ham-Kam away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.41 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between ODD Ballklubb and Ham-Kam runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 August 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ham-Kam have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Ham-Kam specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
ODD Ballklubb
0
Draws
2
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Ham-Kam?
From 6 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 4, Ham-Kam have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 18 August 2024, when Ham-Kam 1-0 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Ham-Kam?
ODD Ballklubb have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 54%, Ham-Kam 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (ODD Ballklubb) and 54% (Ham-Kam).
On the defensive side: ODD Ballklubb have failed to score in 27% of games; Ham-Kam in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Ham-Kam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of ODD Ballklubb's recent matches and 54% of Ham-Kam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of ODD Ballklubb's recent games and 54% of Ham-Kam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ham-Kam edge out ODD Ballklubb 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam beat ODD Ballklubb 1-2 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.28 xG and Ham-Kam 1.77 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 0.95 / defence 1.21 against Ham-Kam attack 1.01 / defence 0.95, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 28% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 49%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 54%, Ham-Kam 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ODD Ballklubb 1.18 PPG, Ham-Kam 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ham-Kam win broke the near-deadlock. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.