Bodo/Glimt vs Viking – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Bodo/Glimt at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bodo/Glimt vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Viking make the trip to Aspmyra Stadion to face Bodo/Glimt in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 October 2021 at 01:00 UTC.

Form

Bodo/Glimt (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bodo/Glimt's home record at Aspmyra Stadion: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Viking have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Viking away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.60 vs 2.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Bodo/Glimt, 0 for Viking and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2021, ended 3–1 with Bodo/Glimt winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Bodo/Glimt goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

Viking goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 89% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 61% and Viking 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 72% | Viking 76%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 1.68 xG and Viking 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.111 / defence 0.854 | Viking attack 1.215 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.807 / away 1.219. Viking have an above-average attack strength of 1.215 — the away xG of 1.26 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 Bodo/Glimt games / 54 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 45% | Draw 29% | Viking 26%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Viking 3.85. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 50% | Viking 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights