Stromsgodset 1-2 Mjondalen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stromsgodset at 82% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stromsgodset vs Mjondalen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stromsgodset and Mjondalen meet at Marienlyst Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 November 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Stromsgodset (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stromsgodset have posted 6W 2D 2L at Marienlyst Stadion — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Stromsgodset are significantly better at Marienlyst Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Mjondalen's overall Eliteserien record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Mjondalen have posted 0W 5D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Stromsgodset. A 0.60 PPG lead over Mjondalen (1.20 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Stromsgodset lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jun 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Stromsgodset goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Mjondalen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 57% versus Mjondalen 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 61% | Mjondalen 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 2.98 xG and Mjondalen 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 1.318 / defence 0.756 | Mjondalen attack 0.750 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 1.792 / away 1.228. Stromsgodset carry an above-average attack strength of 1.318 — their λ of 2.98 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Mjondalen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.261 — this is suppressing Stromsgodset's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Stromsgodset's defence rating of 0.756 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Stromsgodset games / 56 Mjondalen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 82% | Draw 13% | Mjondalen 5%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 1.22 | Draw 7.69 | Mjondalen 20.00. The model has a clear lean to Stromsgodset (82%) — a 77pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stromsgodset as the most likely outcome at 82% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.67 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Stromsgodset 50% | Mjondalen 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Mjondalen | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 82% | Draw 13% | Mjondalen 5% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 49% | xG Stromsgodset 2.98 / Mjondalen 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 1.318 / def 0.756 | Mjondalen attack 0.750 / def 1.261 | league avg home 1.792 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (82%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.98
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Mjondalen xG
49%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Mjondalen kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Mjondalen kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Mjondalen?
Stromsgodset 1 - 2 Mjondalen.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Mjondalen being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Mjondalen part of?
Stromsgodset vs Mjondalen is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Mjondalen?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 82% chance of winning, Mjondalen a 5% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Mjondalen?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Stromsgodset and Mjondalen will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Mjondalen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Mjondalen?
Record (3 meetings): Stromsgodset 1W | Draws 1 | Mjondalen 1W.
What form are Stromsgodset and Mjondalen in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Mjondalen (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Stromsgodset's attacking strength (1.32x league average) is weighed against Mjondalen's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.98. Flip it around — Mjondalen's attack (0.75x) against Stromsgodset's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.3%. Close behind: 3-0 (11.2%), 4-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
82%
1.22
13%
7.46
5%
21.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
11.2%
Home win
4 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.98
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
3.67
0.70
Mjondalen xG
1.22
82%
Home win
7.46
13%
Draw
21.23
5%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
5%
19.65
Win to Nil
41%
2.45
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 7.8 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.2 | 7.8 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Mjondalen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Mjondalen expected to score?
The model projects 2.98 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 0.70 for Mjondalen, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Mjondalen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 82%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stromsgodset's recent record stands at 16W 17D 23L from 56 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjondalen, meanwhile, have gone 12W 12D 32L across 56 games — 0.86 PPG, with L-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Stromsgodset against 0.86 for Mjondalen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Stromsgodset have managed 10W 9D 8L from 27 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mjondalen's away record stands at 3W 7D 17L across 27 trips, a 0.59 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stromsgodset come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Mjondalen are on 1.05 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Blended
Mjondalen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Mjondalen in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 16W 17D 23L in their last 56 games (1.16 PPG), while Mjondalen have gone 12W 12D 32L in their last 56 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Mjondalen away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.44 PPG; Mjondalen away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjondalen won 3-0 on 7 Nov 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stromsgodset have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Mjondalen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Stromsgodset
1
Draws
2
Mjondalen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Mjondalen?
From 4 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 1, Mjondalen have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Mjondalen last play each other?
They last met on 20 November 2021, when Stromsgodset 1-2 Mjondalen.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Mjondalen?
Mjondalen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 63%, Mjondalen 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Stromsgodset) and 48% (Mjondalen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mjondalen in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Mjondalen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Mjondalen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Stromsgodset's games and 56% of Mjondalen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs Mjondalen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Stromsgodset's matches and 48% of Mjondalen's.
Do Stromsgodset and Mjondalen tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Mjondalen in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mjondalen defy the odds to beat Stromsgodset 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjondalen beat Stromsgodset 1-2 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 2.98 xG and Mjondalen 0.70 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Stromsgodset fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Mjondalen outscored their 0.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 1.32 / defence 0.76 against Mjondalen attack 0.75 / defence 1.26, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 82% | Draw 13% | Mjondalen 5%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 82%. Instead the game produced a Mjondalen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 5% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 61%, Mjondalen 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Mjondalen's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 1.16 PPG, Mjondalen 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjondalen win broke the near-deadlock. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward. Mjondalen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.