Mjondalen vs Tromso – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjondalen at 52%, yet in-form Tromso provide a compelling counter-argument — this Mjondalen vs Tromso fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Tromso travel to Consto Arena to take on Mjondalen. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 October 2021, 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Mjondalen have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjondalen's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Consto Arena this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tromso stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Tromso, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Tromso have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Tromso are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Mjondalen register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Tromso in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Mjondalen, 2 for Tromso and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Tromso winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Mjondalen in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Tromso in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mjondalen 67% and Tromso 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjondalen 54% | Tromso 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjondalen 1.87 xG and Tromso 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjondalen attack 0.965 / defence 1.011 | Tromso attack 0.922 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.807 / away 1.219. Data: 54 Mjondalen games / 24 Tromso games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjondalen 52% | Draw 27% | Tromso 21%. Fair-value odds: Mjondalen 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Tromso 4.76. Mjondalen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 1.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mjondalen at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Tromso (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjondalen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mjondalen 80% | Tromso 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjondalen vs Tromso | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Consto Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjondalen 52% | Draw 27% | Tromso 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Mjondalen 1.87 / Tromso 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Mjondalen attack 0.965 / def 1.011 | Tromso attack 0.922 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.807 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Mjondalen (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Mjondalen xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Tromso xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjondalen vs Tromso kick off?
Mjondalen vs Tromso kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Consto Arena.
Where is Mjondalen vs Tromso being played?
The match is being played at Consto Arena.
What competition is Mjondalen vs Tromso part of?
Mjondalen vs Tromso is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Mjondalen vs Tromso?
Our statistical model gives Mjondalen a 52% chance of winning, Tromso a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mjondalen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjondalen vs Tromso?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Mjondalen and Tromso will score (BTTS).
Will Mjondalen vs Tromso have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Tromso?
Record (2 meetings): Mjondalen 0W | Draws 0 | Tromso 2W.
What form are Mjondalen and Tromso in?
Mjondalen (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Tromso (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Mjondalen's attack rating (0.96) and Tromso's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tromso's attack versus Mjondalen's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjondalen Win
52%
1.92
27%
3.68
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Mjondalen xG
Total xG
3.00
1.14
Tromso xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
15%
6.48
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
3%
31.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.5 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjondalen vs Tromso?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Mjondalen and Tromso expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Mjondalen and 1.14 for Tromso, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjondalen vs Tromso?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mjondalen come into this having played 24 games, going 3W 9D 12L for 0.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Tromso sit at 1.17 PPG from 24 outings (7W 7D 10L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Tromso is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tromso carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Mjondalen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Mjondalen's home form reads 2W 5D 5L across 12 games on their own ground, a 0.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Tromso have taken 1.25 points per game from 12 outings (4W 3D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Mjondalen are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Tromso are on 1.21 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mjondalen have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 24 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjondalen
Blended
Tromso
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjondalen and Tromso in coming into this match?
Mjondalen have gone 3W 9D 12L in their last 24 games (0.75 PPG), while Tromso have gone 7W 7D 10L in their last 24 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjondalen at home or Tromso away?
Tromso's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjondalen at home: 0.92 PPG; Tromso away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mjondalen and Tromso runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Mjondalen
0
Draws
2
Tromso
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Tromso?
From 2 meetings on record, Mjondalen have won 0, Tromso have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mjondalen and Tromso last play each other?
They last met on 24 October 2021, when Tromso 1-0 Mjondalen.
Who has won more matches between Mjondalen and Tromso?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjondalen 75%, Tromso 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Mjondalen and 67% for Tromso. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tromso in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjondalen home games / Tromso away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjondalen play Tromso?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Mjondalen's games and 50% of Tromso's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjondalen vs Tromso usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Mjondalen's matches and 67% of Tromso's.
Do Mjondalen and Tromso tend to score early?
Mjondalen have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Tromso in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Mjondalen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjondalen and Tromso finished level at 0-0 at Consto Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjondalen 1.87 xG and Tromso 1.14 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mjondalen fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Tromso landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjondalen attack 0.96 / defence 1.01 against Tromso attack 0.92 / defence 1.07, drawn from 54/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjondalen 52% | Draw 27% | Tromso 21%, with Mjondalen to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjondalen 54%, Tromso 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjondalen's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Tromso's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Tromso arrived the stronger side — 1.17 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Mjondalen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Tromso (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.