Stromsgodset vs Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stromsgodset at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stromsgodset vs Brann encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Brann travel to Marienlyst Stadion to take on Stromsgodset. The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 July 2021, 01:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stromsgodset — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stromsgodset's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Marienlyst Stadion this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Brann stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Stromsgodset are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Stromsgodset, 1 for Brann and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 May 2021, ended 0–3 with Brann winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Brann in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stromsgodset 62% and Brann 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 67% | Brann 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 2.22 xG and Brann 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 1.214 / defence 0.934 | Brann attack 0.721 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.639 / away 1.141. Data: 39 Stromsgodset games / 41 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 69% | Draw 21% | Brann 10%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 1.45 | Draw 4.76 | Brann 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Stromsgodset (69%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stromsgodset at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Stromsgodset 60% | Brann 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Jul 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 69% | Draw 21% | Brann 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 49% | xG Stromsgodset 2.22 / Brann 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 1.214 / def 0.934 | Brann attack 0.721 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.639 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.22
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Brann xG
49%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Brann kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Brann kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 3 July 2021 at Marienlyst Stadion.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Brann part of?
Stromsgodset vs Brann is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 69% chance of winning, Brann a 10% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Stromsgodset and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Brann?
Record (3 meetings): Stromsgodset 1W | Draws 1 | Brann 1W.
What form are Stromsgodset and Brann in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Brann (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stromsgodset's attack rating (1.21) and Brann's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 2.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brann's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 1-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
69%
1.45
21%
4.77
10%
9.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.22
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
2.99
0.77
Brann xG
1.45
69%
Home win
4.77
21%
Draw
9.99
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
11%
9.23
Win to Nil
32%
3.13
1%
92.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 2.22 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 0.77 for Brann, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Brann?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, Stromsgodset have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 10W 12D 17L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brann's form line: 8W 11D 20L from 39 games, 0.90 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-D. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stromsgodset on 1.08 PPG, Brann on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Stromsgodset have posted 1.32 PPG from 19 outings (6W 7D 6L).
On the road, Brann have gone 4W 4D 11L from 19 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stromsgodset come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.13 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stromsgodset have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Brann in 67%.
Last 39 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Blended
Brann
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Brann in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 10W 12D 17L in their last 39 games (1.08 PPG), while Brann have gone 8W 11D 20L in their last 39 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Brann away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.32 PPG; Brann away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2025, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Brann have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 May 2021, when Brann won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting Brann specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Stromsgodset
2
Draws
5
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Brann?
From 10 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 3, Brann have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2025, when Stromsgodset 1-2 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 63%, Brann 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Stromsgodset) and 47% (Brann). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset have failed to score in 26% of games; Brann in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Brann?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Stromsgodset's games and 47% of Brann's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Stromsgodset's matches and 47% of Brann's.
Do Stromsgodset and Brann tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Brann in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stromsgodset's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 14, as Stromsgodset and Brann drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 2.22 xG and Brann 0.77 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stromsgodset fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 1.21 / defence 0.93 against Brann attack 0.72 / defence 1.12, drawn from 39/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 69% | Draw 21% | Brann 10%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 67%, Brann 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Brann's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 1.08 PPG, Brann 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line. Brann (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.