Utrecht 0-1 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Utrecht at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Utrecht vs Almere City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Galgenwaard plays host to Utrecht versus Almere City FC in Eredivisie (matchday 22). Kick-off: Sunday 9 February 2025 at 11:15 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Utrecht have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Utrecht have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Almere City FC's record over their last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Almere City FC's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Utrecht's 1.40 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Almere City FC's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Dec 2024, ended Utrecht 3–1 Almere City FC — a Utrecht win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Utrecht — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 64%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Utrecht 67% versus Almere City FC 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utrecht 56% | Almere City FC 50%). Note also that Almere City FC surrender HT leads in 60% of cases while Utrecht recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 64% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utrecht 1.63 xG and Almere City FC 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utrecht attack 0.959 / defence 1.257 | Almere City FC attack 0.572 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.685 / away 1.380. Almere City FC's attack rating of 0.572 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Utrecht's defence rating of 1.257 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Almere City FC's projected output up. Data: built from Utrecht's last 55 games and Almere City FC's last 54.
Result probabilities: Utrecht 52% | Draw 25% | Almere City FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Utrecht 1.92 | Draw 3.95 | Almere City FC 4.40. Utrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Utrecht are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Utrecht if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Utrecht 60% (last 10 home games) | Almere City FC 10% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utrecht vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 22 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Sunday 9 February 2025 at 11:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utrecht 52% | Draw 25% | Almere City FC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Utrecht 1.63 / Almere City FC 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Utrecht attack 0.959 / def 1.257 | Almere City FC attack 0.572 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.685 / away 1.380 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Almere City FC xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Utrecht vs Almere City FC FAQs
What time does Utrecht vs Almere City FC kick off?
Utrecht vs Almere City FC kicked off at 11:15 UK time on Sunday 9 February 2025 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Utrecht vs Almere City FC?
Utrecht 0 - 1 Almere City FC.
Where is Utrecht vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Utrecht vs Almere City FC part of?
Utrecht vs Almere City FC is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 22) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Utrecht vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Utrecht a 52% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utrecht vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Utrecht and Almere City FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Utrecht vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Utrecht's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Almere City FC's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. Flip it around — Almere City FC's attack (0.57x) against Utrecht's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from Utrecht's last 55 games and Almere City FC's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
52%
1.92
25%
3.95
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.62
0.99
Almere City FC xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
20%
5.10
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
4%
22.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.7 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Utrecht vs Almere City FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Utrecht vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Utrecht and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Utrecht and 0.99 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Utrecht vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Utrecht come into this having played 54 games, going 26W 17D 11L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-D.
On the other side, Almere City FC sit at 0.81 PPG from 54 outings (9W 17D 28L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five.
Utrecht carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.95 PPG clear of Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Utrecht's home form reads 14W 7D 5L across their last 26 home games, a 1.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Almere City FC have taken 0.81 points per game from their last 26 away games (4W 9D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Utrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Utrecht are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 0.81 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Utrecht have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utrecht
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
Utrecht (Home) vs Almere City FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Utrecht
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Utrecht vs Almere City FC Form FAQs
What form are Utrecht and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Utrecht have gone 26W 17D 11L in their last 54 games (1.76 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 9W 17D 28L in their last 54 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utrecht at home or Almere City FC away?
Utrecht's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utrecht at home: 1.88 PPG; Almere City FC away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent in our data was on 9 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Utrecht have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Utrecht
1
Draws
2
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Utrecht vs Almere City FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and Almere City FC?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Utrecht have won 1, Almere City FC have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Utrecht and Almere City FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 February 2025: Utrecht 0-1 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Utrecht and Almere City FC?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utrecht 65%, Almere City FC 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Utrecht) and 46% (Almere City FC).
On the defensive side: Almere City FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utrecht home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Utrecht vs Almere City FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Utrecht and Almere City FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Utrecht's recent matches and 38% of Almere City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Utrecht and Almere City FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Utrecht's recent games and 46% of Almere City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Utrecht and Almere City FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Utrecht's recent matches and 73% of Almere City FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Almere City FC defy the odds to beat Utrecht 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat Utrecht 0-1 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 22, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 1.63 xG and Almere City FC 0.99 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Utrecht fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 0.96 / defence 1.26 against Almere City FC attack 0.57 / defence 1.01, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utrecht 52% | Draw 25% | Almere City FC 23%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Almere City FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 56%, Almere City FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utrecht's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Almere City FC's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Utrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 0.81. Form was overturned, with Almere City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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