AZ Alkmaar 2-0 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PEC Zwolle make the trip to AFAS Stadion to face AZ Alkmaar in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 9 February 2025 at 15:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AZ Alkmaar have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AZ Alkmaar's home record at AFAS Stadion: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
PEC Zwolle's overall Eredivisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, PEC Zwolle have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in AZ Alkmaar's favour (2.00 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — AZ Alkmaar lead 3W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2024, ended 2–1 with AZ Alkmaar winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
AZ Alkmaar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
PEC Zwolle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AZ Alkmaar 53% versus PEC Zwolle 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AZ Alkmaar 66% | PEC Zwolle 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 1.59 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.005 / defence 0.942 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.986 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.691 / away 1.363. Data: 55 AZ Alkmaar games / 55 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 45% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 30%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | PEC Zwolle 3.33. AZ Alkmaar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AZ Alkmaar are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: AZ Alkmaar 70% | PEC Zwolle 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Feb 2025, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 45% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG AZ Alkmaar 1.59 / PEC Zwolle 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.005 / def 0.942 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.986 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.691 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
1.27
PEC Zwolle xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 9 February 2025 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle?
AZ Alkmaar 2 - 0 PEC Zwolle.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 45% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and PEC Zwolle?
Record (5 meetings): AZ Alkmaar 3W | Draws 1 | PEC Zwolle 1W.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and PEC Zwolle in?
AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates AZ Alkmaar's attack at 1.00x the league average against PEC Zwolle's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PEC Zwolle's attack (0.99x) against AZ Alkmaar's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
45%
2.22
25%
4.06
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
2.86
1.27
PEC Zwolle xG
2.22
45%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
13%
7.88
6%
16.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.6 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.27 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AZ Alkmaar come into this having played 55 games, going 30W 12D 13L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-W. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PEC Zwolle sit at 1.09 PPG from 55 outings (15W 15D 25L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AZ Alkmaar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
AZ Alkmaar's home form reads 16W 4D 7L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.93 PPG return.
Away from home, PEC Zwolle have taken 0.96 points per game from 27 outings (5W 11D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.29 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle in 62%.
Defensively: AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 30W 12D 13L in their last 55 games (1.85 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 15W 15D 25L in their last 55 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or PEC Zwolle away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 1.93 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 0.96 PPG.
Have AZ Alkmaar or PEC Zwolle been keeping clean sheets recently?
AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, PEC Zwolle in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AZ Alkmaar won 0-3 on 24 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AZ Alkmaar have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
AZ Alkmaar
2
Draws
2
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and PEC Zwolle?
From 8 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 4, PEC Zwolle have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when PEC Zwolle 3-1 AZ Alkmaar.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and PEC Zwolle?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AZ Alkmaar 56%, PEC Zwolle 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for AZ Alkmaar and 56% for PEC Zwolle. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AZ Alkmaar keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; PEC Zwolle in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play PEC Zwolle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of AZ Alkmaar's games and 63% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 56% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AZ Alkmaar cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over PEC Zwolle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat PEC Zwolle 2-0 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 1.59 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.27 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. PEC Zwolle landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.00 / defence 0.94 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.99 / defence 0.94, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 45% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 30%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 66%, PEC Zwolle 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.09. That form edge translated into the three points. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.