NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NEC Nijmegen at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this NEC Nijmegen vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Goffertstadion plays host to NEC Nijmegen versus Almere City FC in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Sunday 16 February 2025 at 11:15 UTC.
Form
NEC Nijmegen (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, NEC Nijmegen have posted 4W 3D 3L at Goffertstadion — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Almere City FC's overall Eredivisie record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for NEC Nijmegen, 0.70 for Almere City FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for NEC Nijmegen, 1 for Almere City FC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2024, ended 0–1 with Almere City FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
NEC Nijmegen — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NEC Nijmegen 60% versus Almere City FC 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEC Nijmegen 67% | Almere City FC 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 1.89 xG and Almere City FC 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.257 / defence 1.006 | Almere City FC attack 0.598 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.683 / away 1.360. NEC Nijmegen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.257 — their λ of 1.89 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 55 NEC Nijmegen games / 55 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 63% | Draw 22% | Almere City FC 16%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | Almere City FC 6.25. The model has a clear lean to NEC Nijmegen (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: NEC Nijmegen 70% | Almere City FC 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Feb 2025, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 63% | Draw 22% | Almere City FC 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 47% | xG NEC Nijmegen 1.89 / Almere City FC 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.257 / def 1.006 | Almere City FC attack 0.598 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.683 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Almere City FC xG
47%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Almere City FC kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs Almere City FC kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 16 February 2025 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs Almere City FC?
NEC Nijmegen 2 - 2 Almere City FC.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs Almere City FC part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 63% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Almere City FC?
Record (3 meetings): NEC Nijmegen 1W | Draws 1 | Almere City FC 1W.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Almere City FC in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Almere City FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from NEC Nijmegen's attack rating (1.26) and Almere City FC's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Almere City FC's attack (0.60x) against NEC Nijmegen's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
63%
1.60
22%
4.60
16%
6.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
2.71
0.82
Almere City FC xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
6.39
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
15%
6.61
Win to Nil
28%
3.62
2%
42.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 10.3 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 0.82 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs Almere City FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
NEC Nijmegen come into this having played 55 games, going 21W 14D 20L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Almere City FC sit at 0.85 PPG from 55 outings (10W 17D 28L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NEC Nijmegen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
NEC Nijmegen's home form reads 11W 7D 9L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Almere City FC have taken 0.89 points per game from 27 outings (5W 9D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NEC Nijmegen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 0.82 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NEC Nijmegen have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 21W 14D 20L in their last 55 games (1.40 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 10W 17D 28L in their last 55 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or Almere City FC away?
NEC Nijmegen's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 1.48 PPG; Almere City FC away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NEC Nijmegen won 1-4 on 19 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NEC Nijmegen have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
NEC Nijmegen
2
Draws
1
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Almere City FC?
From 4 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 1, Almere City FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Almere City FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NEC Nijmegen 70%, Almere City FC 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (NEC Nijmegen) and 44% (Almere City FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play Almere City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 70% of NEC Nijmegen's recent matches and 37% of Almere City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of NEC Nijmegen's matches and 44% of Almere City FC's.
Do NEC Nijmegen and Almere City FC tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NEC Nijmegen and Almere City FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen and Almere City FC finished level at 2-2 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 1.89 xG and Almere City FC 0.82 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Almere City FC outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.26 / defence 1.01 against Almere City FC attack 0.60 / defence 0.89, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 63% | Draw 22% | Almere City FC 16%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 67%, Almere City FC 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Almere City FC's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, NEC Nijmegen arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.