Feyenoord 3-0 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Feyenoord (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Feyenoord face Sparta Rotterdam.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Feyenoord host Sparta Rotterdam at Stadion Feijenoord in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 February 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Feyenoord — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feyenoord's home record at Stadion Feijenoord: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Sparta Rotterdam have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Rotterdam's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Feyenoord have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Feyenoord register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Feyenoord have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 6 past contests while Sparta Rotterdam have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Feyenoord and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Feyenoord in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Sparta Rotterdam in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Feyenoord 59% and Sparta Rotterdam 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 67% | Sparta Rotterdam 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 1.56 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.168 / defence 0.954 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.887 / defence 0.798. League average goals — home 1.671 / away 1.393. Sparta Rotterdam's defence strength of 0.798 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 54 Feyenoord games / 55 Sparta Rotterdam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 46% | Draw 26% | Sparta Rotterdam 29%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Sparta Rotterdam 3.45. Feyenoord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Feyenoord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Feyenoord 60% | Sparta Rotterdam 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Feb 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 46% | Draw 26% | Sparta Rotterdam 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Feyenoord 1.56 / Sparta Rotterdam 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.168 / def 0.954 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.887 / def 0.798 | league avg home 1.671 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Sparta Rotterdam xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 8 February 2025 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Feyenoord 3 - 0 Sparta Rotterdam.
Where is Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 46% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Feyenoord and Sparta Rotterdam will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Sparta Rotterdam?
Record (6 meetings): Feyenoord 4W | Draws 2 | Sparta Rotterdam 0W.
What form are Feyenoord and Sparta Rotterdam in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Feyenoord's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Sparta Rotterdam's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Rotterdam's attack versus Feyenoord's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
46%
2.18
26%
3.89
29%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
2.74
1.18
Sparta Rotterdam xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.51
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
14%
7.09
6%
16.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.9 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Feyenoord and 1.18 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Feyenoord come into this having played 54 games, going 36W 12D 6L for 2.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sparta Rotterdam sit at 1.20 PPG from 54 outings (17W 14D 23L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Feyenoord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.02 PPG clear of Sparta Rotterdam — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Feyenoord's home form reads 18W 5D 3L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Sparta Rotterdam have taken 1.23 points per game from 26 outings (9W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Feyenoord are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 1.24 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Rotterdam in 61%.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Blended
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 36W 12D 6L in their last 54 games (2.22 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 17W 14D 23L in their last 54 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.27 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or Sparta Rotterdam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Sparta Rotterdam in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Feyenoord and Sparta Rotterdam runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Feb 2022, when Feyenoord won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Feyenoord's record when hosting Sparta Rotterdam specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Feyenoord
2
Draws
1
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Sparta Rotterdam?
From 10 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 7, Sparta Rotterdam have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Sparta Rotterdam 0-1 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and Sparta Rotterdam?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sparta Rotterdam see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 50%, Sparta Rotterdam 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Feyenoord) and 46% (Sparta Rotterdam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Sparta Rotterdam in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play Sparta Rotterdam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Feyenoord's games and 62% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Feyenoord's matches and 46% of Sparta Rotterdam's.
Do Feyenoord and Sparta Rotterdam tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Feyenoord run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sparta Rotterdam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Sparta Rotterdam 3-0 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 22, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 1.56 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.18 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Feyenoord beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sparta Rotterdam landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.17 / defence 0.95 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.89 / defence 0.80, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 46% | Draw 26% | Sparta Rotterdam 29%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 67%, Sparta Rotterdam 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Feyenoord (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.