NAC Breda 0-0 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rat Verlegh Stadion plays host to NAC Breda versus De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Friday 2 February 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
NAC Breda have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda's home record at Rat Verlegh Stadion: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
De Graafschap's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, De Graafschap have posted 6W 0D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: NAC Breda 2W, De Graafschap 2W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2023, ended 0–1 with De Graafschap winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
NAC Breda half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
De Graafschap half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NAC Breda 72% and De Graafschap 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 67% | De Graafschap 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.72 xG and De Graafschap 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 1.001 / defence 1.019 | De Graafschap attack 1.141 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.629 / away 1.349. Data: 60 NAC Breda games / 61 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 41% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 34%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | De Graafschap 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates NAC Breda as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on NAC Breda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 80% | De Graafschap 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 2 Feb 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 41% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG NAC Breda 1.72 / De Graafschap 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 1.001 / def 1.019 | De Graafschap attack 1.141 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.629 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.57
De Graafschap xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs De Graafschap kick off?
NAC Breda vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 2 February 2024 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs De Graafschap?
NAC Breda 0 - 0 De Graafschap.
Where is NAC Breda vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs De Graafschap part of?
NAC Breda vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 41% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both NAC Breda and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and De Graafschap?
Record (5 meetings): NAC Breda 2W | Draws 1 | De Graafschap 2W.
What form are NAC Breda and De Graafschap in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. De Graafschap (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
NAC Breda's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (1.14x) against NAC Breda's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 60/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
41%
2.46
25%
3.98
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
3.29
1.57
De Graafschap xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
21%
4.80
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
8%
11.81
6%
16.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.1 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.57 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 61 outings, NAC Breda have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 28W 9D 24L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap's form line: 28W 10D 23L from 61 games, 1.54 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for NAC Breda against 1.54 for De Graafschap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, NAC Breda have posted 1.62 PPG from 29 outings (14W 5D 10L).
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 12W 5D 12L from 29 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
NAC Breda are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.66 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 28W 9D 24L in their last 61 games (1.52 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 28W 10D 23L in their last 61 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or De Graafschap away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.62 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.41 PPG.
Have NAC Breda or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NAC Breda have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
NAC Breda
2
Draws
2
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and De Graafschap?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 2, De Graafschap have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2024, when NAC Breda 0-0 De Graafschap.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 72% for NAC Breda, 59% for De Graafschap — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for NAC Breda and 69% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of NAC Breda's games and 59% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of NAC Breda's matches and 69% of De Graafschap's.
Do NAC Breda and De Graafschap tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at NAC Breda's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda and De Graafschap finished level at 0-0 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.72 xG and De Graafschap 1.57 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. NAC Breda fell 1.7 short of their projected output. De Graafschap landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 1.00 / defence 1.02 against De Graafschap attack 1.14 / defence 1.06, drawn from 60/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 41% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 34%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 67%, De Graafschap 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
De Graafschap's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.52 PPG, De Graafschap 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.