MVV 6-1 Telstar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates MVV at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this MVV vs Telstar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
MVV host Telstar at De Geusselt in Eerste Divisie (matchday 24). Kick-off is Friday 2 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
MVV — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
MVV's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.90 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Telstar stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Telstar away from home: 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
MVV carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, MVV have won 2, Telstar 3, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 14 Oct 2023, ended MVV 1–2 Telstar — a Telstar win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
MVV trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Telstar trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — MVV 66% versus Telstar 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (MVV 67% | Telstar 46%). Note also that Telstar surrender HT leads in 42% of cases while MVV recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 1.64 xG and Telstar 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 1.009 / defence 0.910 | Telstar attack 0.678 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.629 / away 1.349. Telstar's attack rating of 0.678 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.83. Data: built from MVV's last 61 games and Telstar's last 61.
Result probabilities: MVV 55% | Draw 27% | Telstar 18%. Fair-value odds: MVV 1.81 | Draw 3.70 | Telstar 5.62. The model has a clear lean to MVV (55%) — a 28pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, MVV are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: MVV 50% (last 10 home games) | Telstar 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs Telstar | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 24 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Friday 2 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 55% | Draw 27% | Telstar 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG MVV 1.64 / Telstar 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 1.009 / def 0.910 | Telstar attack 0.678 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.629 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: MVV (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
MVV xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Telstar xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ MVV vs Telstar FAQs
What time does MVV vs Telstar kick off?
MVV vs Telstar kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 2 February 2024 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs Telstar?
MVV 6 - 1 Telstar.
Where is MVV vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs Telstar part of?
MVV vs Telstar is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 24) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 55% chance of winning, Telstar a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making MVV the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both MVV and Telstar will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will MVV vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
MVV's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Telstar's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, Telstar's attack versus MVV's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from MVV's last 61 games and Telstar's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
MVV Win
55%
1.81
27%
3.70
18%
5.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
MVV xG
Total xG
2.47
0.83
Telstar xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
5.62
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
24%
4.17
3%
28.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 11.5 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ MVV vs Telstar Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are MVV and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for MVV and 0.83 for Telstar, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs Telstar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
MVV's recent record stands at 26W 10D 25L from 61 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Telstar, meanwhile, have gone 18W 15D 28L across 61 games — 1.13 PPG, with L-L-D-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: MVV on 1.44 PPG, Telstar on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, MVV have managed 16W 6D 8L from their last 30 home games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Telstar's away record stands at 7W 7D 16L across their last 30 away games, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, MVV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
MVV are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 0.97 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: MVV have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Blended
Telstar
Blended
MVV (Home) vs Telstar (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
MVV
Blended
Telstar
Blended
❓ MVV vs Telstar Form FAQs
What form are MVV and Telstar in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 26W 10D 25L in their last 61 games (1.44 PPG), while Telstar have gone 18W 15D 28L in their last 61 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or Telstar away?
MVV's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 1.80 PPG; Telstar away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from September 2021. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent in our data was on 22 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 Feb 2024, when MVV won MVV 6-1 Telstar.
MVV's record when hosting Telstar specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
MVV
0
Draws
4
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ MVV vs Telstar H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Telstar?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, MVV have won 4, Telstar have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did MVV and Telstar last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 December 2024: MVV 5-1 Telstar.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — MVV 67%, Telstar 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (MVV) and 43% (Telstar).
On the defensive side: Telstar in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ MVV vs Telstar Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in MVV and Telstar matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of MVV's games and 43% of Telstar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are MVV and Telstar matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of MVV's recent games and 43% of Telstar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do MVV and Telstar matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of MVV's recent matches and 67% of Telstar's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant MVV run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Telstar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
MVV beat Telstar 6-1 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.64 xG and Telstar 0.83 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. MVV beat their projection by 4.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 1.01 / defence 0.91 against Telstar attack 0.68 / defence 0.99, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 55% | Draw 27% | Telstar 18%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 67%, Telstar 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Telstar's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — MVV 1.44 PPG, Telstar 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the MVV win broke the near-deadlock. MVV (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm. Telstar (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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