Jong Utrecht 0-1 Jong Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 43%, yet in-form Jong Ajax provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong Utrecht host Jong Ajax at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch in Eerste Divisie (matchday 24). Kick-off is Monday 5 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Jong Utrecht stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Jong Utrecht's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Jong Utrecht are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Jong Ajax — last 10 games: 3W 6D 1L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Jong Ajax have gone 0W 5D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Jong Ajax — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Jong Utrecht, 2 for Jong Ajax and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Dec 2023, ended Jong Utrecht 1–2 Jong Ajax — a Jong Ajax win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Jong Utrecht in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Jong Ajax in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 43% versus Jong Ajax 74%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 44% | Jong Ajax 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.55 xG and Jong Ajax 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.731 / defence 0.865 | Jong Ajax attack 1.090 / defence 1.311. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.311. Jong Utrecht's attack rating of 0.731 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.55. Jong Ajax's defence rating of 1.311 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Jong Utrecht's projected output up. Data: built from Jong Utrecht's last 61 games and Jong Ajax's last 61.
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 43% | Draw 29% | Jong Ajax 29%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 2.34 | Draw 3.47 | Jong Ajax 3.51. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong Utrecht as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jong Ajax (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong Utrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Jong Utrecht's last 10 home games and Jong Ajax's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jong Utrecht 40% (last 10 home games) | Jong Ajax 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 24 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Monday 5 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 43% | Draw 29% | Jong Ajax 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Jong Utrecht 1.55 / Jong Ajax 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.731 / def 0.865 | Jong Ajax attack 1.090 / def 1.311 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Jong Ajax xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax FAQs
What time does Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 5 February 2024 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax?
Jong Utrecht 0 - 1 Jong Ajax.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax part of?
Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 24) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 43% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Jong Utrecht and Jong Ajax will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Jong Utrecht's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Jong Ajax's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Ajax's attack versus Jong Utrecht's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Jong Utrecht's last 61 games and Jong Ajax's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
43%
2.34
29%
3.47
29%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.79
1.24
Jong Ajax xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.51
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
12%
8.07
6%
16.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.8 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.24 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong Utrecht come into this having played 61 games, going 11W 15D 35L for 0.79 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-D.
On the other side, Jong Ajax sit at 1.15 PPG from 61 outings (17W 19D 25L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong Utrecht on 0.79 PPG, Jong Ajax on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jong Utrecht's home form reads 9W 10D 10L across their last 29 home games, a 1.28 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.79 PPG overall — Jong Utrecht are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Jong Ajax have taken 0.86 points per game from their last 29 away games (5W 10D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong Utrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jong Utrecht are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 1.72 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax in 74%.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Blended
Jong Ajax
Blended
Jong Utrecht (Home) vs Jong Ajax (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jong Utrecht
Blended
Jong Ajax
Blended
❓ Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax Form FAQs
What form are Jong Utrecht and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 11W 15D 35L in their last 61 games (0.79 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 17W 19D 25L in their last 61 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or Jong Ajax away?
Jong Utrecht's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 1.28 PPG; Jong Ajax away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2022. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 14 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jong Utrecht have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Sep 2026, when Jong Utrecht won Jong Utrecht 6-1 Jong Ajax.
Jong Utrecht's record when hosting Jong Ajax specifically: 3W 0D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jong Utrecht
1
Draws
4
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Jong Ajax?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Jong Utrecht have won 5, Jong Ajax have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and Jong Ajax last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 September 2026: Jong Utrecht 6-1 Jong Ajax.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and Jong Ajax?
Jong Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong Utrecht see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 62% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 34%, Jong Ajax 83% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 24% (Jong Utrecht) and 69% (Jong Ajax).
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 45% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jong Utrecht and Jong Ajax matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 34% of Jong Utrecht's games and 83% of Jong Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Jong Utrecht and Jong Ajax matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Jong Utrecht's recent games and 69% of Jong Ajax's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong Utrecht and Jong Ajax matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 52% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 86% of Jong Ajax's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jong Ajax defy the odds to beat Jong Utrecht 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Ajax beat Jong Utrecht 0-1 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.55 xG and Jong Ajax 1.24 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Jong Utrecht fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.73 / defence 0.86 against Jong Ajax attack 1.09 / defence 1.31, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 43% | Draw 29% | Jong Ajax 29%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Jong Ajax win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 44%, Jong Ajax 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jong Ajax's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Utrecht 0.79 PPG, Jong Ajax 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong Ajax win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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