MVV 1-1 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates MVV at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this MVV vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
De Geusselt plays host to MVV versus Cambuur in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Friday 20 October 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
MVV (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
MVV's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 games at De Geusselt this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — MVV are significantly better at De Geusselt than their overall form suggests.
Cambuur's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cambuur have gone 1W 0D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 3.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for MVV, 1.30 for Cambuur — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — MVV register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Cambuur in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
MVV half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Cambuur half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — MVV 68% versus Cambuur 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (MVV 73% | Cambuur 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 2.02 xG and Cambuur 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 0.774 / defence 1.140 | Cambuur attack 1.115 / defence 1.548. League average goals — home 1.686 / away 1.366. MVV's attack strength of 0.774 is below the league average — the 2.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cambuur bring a strong defensive rating of 1.548 — this is suppressing MVV's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 MVV games / 10 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: MVV 45% | Draw 21% | Cambuur 34%. Fair-value odds: MVV 2.22 | Draw 4.76 | Cambuur 2.94. MVV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.76. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.76 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.02 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is MVV at 45% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.76 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates corroborate: MVV 70% | Cambuur 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Friday 20 Oct 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 45% | Draw 21% | Cambuur 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 72% | xG MVV 2.02 / Cambuur 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 0.774 / def 1.140 | Cambuur attack 1.115 / def 1.548 | league avg home 1.686 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: MVV (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
MVV xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Cambuur xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs Cambuur kick off?
MVV vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 October 2023 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs Cambuur?
MVV 1 - 1 Cambuur.
Where is MVV vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs Cambuur part of?
MVV vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 45% chance of winning, Cambuur a 34% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making MVV the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both MVV and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Cambuur?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are MVV and Cambuur in?
MVV (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Cambuur (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates MVV's attack at 0.77x the league average against Cambuur's defence at 1.55x — combine the two and it projects 2.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cambuur's attack (1.11x) against MVV's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.74.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
MVV Win
45%
2.23
21%
4.66
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
MVV xG
Total xG
3.76
1.74
Cambuur xG
2.23
45%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.40
28%
BTTS No
3.52
Clean Sheet
18%
5.68
13%
7.55
Win to Nil
8%
12.65
4%
22.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are MVV and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for MVV and 1.74 for Cambuur, a combined total of 3.76.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, MVV have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 19W 4D 21L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambuur's form line: 9W 5D 30L from 44 games, 0.73 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, MVV are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cambuur.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, MVV have posted 1.81 PPG from 21 outings (12W 2D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — MVV are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cambuur have gone 3W 4D 14L from 21 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, MVV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
MVV are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.11 scored and 2.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: MVV have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and Cambuur in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 19W 4D 21L in their last 44 games (1.39 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 9W 5D 30L in their last 44 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or Cambuur away?
MVV's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 1.81 PPG; Cambuur away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 19 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Cambuur go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cambuur won 4-0 on 19 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, MVV have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cambuur — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
MVV
1
Draws
5
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Cambuur?
From 6 meetings on record, MVV have won 0, Cambuur have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did MVV and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 19 December 2025, when Cambuur 4-0 MVV.
Who has won more matches between MVV and Cambuur?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — MVV 67%, Cambuur 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for MVV and 62% for Cambuur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play Cambuur?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of MVV's games and 52% of Cambuur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is MVV vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of MVV's matches and 62% of Cambuur's.
Do MVV and Cambuur tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
MVV and Cambuur share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
MVV and Cambuur finished level at 1-1 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 11, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 2.02 xG and Cambuur 1.74 xG, a combined 3.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. MVV fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 0.77 / defence 1.14 against Cambuur attack 1.11 / defence 1.55, drawn from 48/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 45% | Draw 21% | Cambuur 34%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 73%, Cambuur 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Cambuur's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, MVV arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. MVV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Cambuur (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.