Jong AZ 3-0 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jong AZ at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong AZ vs FC OSS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Jong AZ welcome FC OSS to AFAS Trainingscomplex in Eerste Divisie (matchday 11). Kick-off is Friday 20 October 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Jong AZ have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Jong AZ have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC OSS stand at 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
FC OSS's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Jong AZ carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Jong AZ, 1 for FC OSS and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 May 2023, ended Jong AZ 1–1 FC OSS — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (last 47 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
FC OSS in-play tendencies (last 47 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 60% versus FC OSS 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 55% | FC OSS 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.66 xG and FC OSS 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.013 / defence 0.989 | FC OSS attack 0.762 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.686 / away 1.366. FC OSS's attack rating of 0.762 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Data: built from Jong AZ's last 47 games and FC OSS's last 47.
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 52% | Draw 25% | FC OSS 23%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 1.93 | Draw 4.04 | FC OSS 4.28. Jong AZ hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong AZ as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Jong AZ 40% (last 10 home games) | FC OSS 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 11 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Friday 20 October 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 52% | Draw 25% | FC OSS 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Jong AZ 1.66 / FC OSS 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 1.013 / def 0.989 | FC OSS attack 0.762 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.686 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.03
FC OSS xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jong AZ vs FC OSS FAQs
What time does Jong AZ vs FC OSS kick off?
Jong AZ vs FC OSS kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 20 October 2023 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs FC OSS?
Jong AZ 3 - 0 FC OSS.
Where is Jong AZ vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs FC OSS part of?
Jong AZ vs FC OSS is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 11) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 52% chance of winning, FC OSS a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Jong AZ and FC OSS will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Jong AZ vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jong AZ's attack at 1.01x the league average against FC OSS's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Jong AZ's last 47 games and FC OSS's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
52%
1.93
25%
4.04
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
2.69
1.03
FC OSS xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
4%
22.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.6 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jong AZ vs FC OSS Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.03 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong AZ's recent record stands at 17W 11D 19L from 47 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five.
FC OSS, meanwhile, have gone 11W 8D 28L across 47 games — 0.87 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jong AZ by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC OSS heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jong AZ have managed 11W 8D 5L from their last 24 home games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC OSS's away record stands at 4W 5D 15L across their last 24 away games, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jong AZ are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.11 scored and 1.89 conceded.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
Jong AZ (Home) vs FC OSS (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jong AZ
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Jong AZ vs FC OSS Form FAQs
What form are Jong AZ and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 17W 11D 19L in their last 47 games (1.32 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 11W 8D 28L in their last 47 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or FC OSS away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.71 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 13 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Oct 2023, when Jong AZ won Jong AZ 3-0 FC OSS.
Jong AZ's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jong AZ
3
Draws
3
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Jong AZ vs FC OSS H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and FC OSS?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Jong AZ have won 4, FC OSS have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and FC OSS last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 February 2026: FC OSS 0-3 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and FC OSS?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 62%, FC OSS 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Jong AZ) and 58% (FC OSS).
On the defensive side: FC OSS in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jong AZ vs FC OSS Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jong AZ and FC OSS matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Jong AZ's games and 54% of FC OSS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Jong AZ and FC OSS matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Jong AZ's recent games and 58% of FC OSS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong AZ and FC OSS matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Jong AZ's recent matches and 79% of FC OSS's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jong AZ run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC OSS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat FC OSS 3-0 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 11, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.66 xG and FC OSS 1.03 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Jong AZ beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC OSS landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.01 / defence 0.99 against FC OSS attack 0.76 / defence 0.97, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 52% | Draw 25% | FC OSS 23%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 55%, FC OSS 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
FC OSS's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong AZ arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.87. That form edge translated into the three points. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. FC OSS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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