De Graafschap 2-1 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as De Graafschap face Groningen.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
De Graafschap host Groningen at Stadion De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie (matchday 11). Kick-off is Friday 20 October 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Guide
De Graafschap — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, De Graafschap have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Groningen stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Groningen's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: De Graafschap 1.70 PPG, Groningen 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Groningen in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 51% versus Groningen 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 58% | Groningen 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.38 xG and Groningen 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.796 / defence 0.715 | Groningen attack 0.978 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.686 / away 1.366. De Graafschap's attack rating of 0.796 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.38. De Graafschap have a tight defence (rating 0.715), which is pulling Groningen's projected output down. Data: built from De Graafschap's last 47 games and Groningen's last 9.
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 47% | Draw 28% | Groningen 26%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.15 | Draw 3.61 | Groningen 3.88. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: De Graafschap 30% (last 10 home games) | Groningen 50% (last 10 away games).
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Groningen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 11 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 20 October 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 47% | Draw 28% | Groningen 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG De Graafschap 1.38 / Groningen 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.796 / def 0.715 | Groningen attack 0.978 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.686 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Groningen xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ De Graafschap vs Groningen FAQs
What time does De Graafschap vs Groningen kick off?
De Graafschap vs Groningen kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 20 October 2023 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Groningen?
De Graafschap 2 - 1 Groningen.
Where is De Graafschap vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Groningen part of?
De Graafschap vs Groningen is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 11) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 47% chance of winning, Groningen a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both De Graafschap and Groningen will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will De Graafschap vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (0.80) and Groningen's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Groningen's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from De Graafschap's last 47 games and Groningen's last 9 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
47%
2.15
28%
3.61
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.34
0.95
Groningen xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
18%
5.59
6%
15.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.8 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ De Graafschap vs Groningen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for De Graafschap and 0.95 for Groningen, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, De Graafschap have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 19W 8D 16L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Groningen's form line: 8W 7D 28L from 43 games, 0.72 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L.
Put side by side, De Graafschap are the form team by 0.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Groningen.
Venue Form
On home soil, De Graafschap have posted 1.71 PPG from their last 21 home games (11W 3D 7L).
On the road, Groningen have gone 3W 3D 15L from their last 21 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
De Graafschap are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.05 scored and 1.98 conceded.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
Groningen
Blended
De Graafschap (Home) vs Groningen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
De Graafschap
Blended
Groningen
Blended
❓ De Graafschap vs Groningen Form FAQs
What form are De Graafschap and Groningen in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 19W 8D 16L in their last 43 games (1.51 PPG), while Groningen have gone 8W 7D 28L in their last 43 (0.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Groningen away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.71 PPG; Groningen away: 0.57 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or Groningen been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Groningen in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2023. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent in our data was on 15 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
De Graafschap
0
Draws
1
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ De Graafschap vs Groningen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Groningen?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, De Graafschap have won 1, Groningen have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Groningen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2024: Groningen 4-2 De Graafschap.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Groningen see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 33%, Groningen 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (De Graafschap) and 57% (Groningen).
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; De Graafschap have failed to score in 33% of games; Groningen in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ De Graafschap vs Groningen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in De Graafschap and Groningen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 52% of Groningen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are De Graafschap and Groningen matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of De Graafschap's recent games and 57% of Groningen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do De Graafschap and Groningen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 57% of Groningen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as De Graafschap edge out Groningen 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Groningen 2-1 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 11, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.38 xG and Groningen 0.95 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.80 / defence 0.71 against Groningen attack 0.98 / defence 1.03, drawn from 47/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 47% | Draw 28% | Groningen 26%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 58%, Groningen 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Groningen's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.72. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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