Jong AZ 5-1 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 37%, yet in-form Dordrecht provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jong AZ vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong AZ host Dordrecht at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Eerste Divisie (matchday 22). Kick-off is Monday 22 January 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Jong AZ — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Jong AZ have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Jong AZ are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Dordrecht stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Dordrecht's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Dordrecht — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Jong AZ have won 1, Dordrecht 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2023, ended Jong AZ 0–0 Dordrecht — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Dordrecht in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 59% versus Dordrecht 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 61% | Dordrecht 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.43 xG and Dordrecht 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 0.925 / defence 1.013 | Dordrecht attack 0.977 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.594 / away 1.399. Data: built from Jong AZ's last 59 games and Dordrecht's last 59.
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 37% | Draw 28% | Dordrecht 35%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 2.71 | Draw 3.58 | Dordrecht 2.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong AZ at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dordrecht (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Jong AZ's last 10 home games and Dordrecht's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jong AZ 40% (last 10 home games) | Dordrecht 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 22 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 22 January 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 37% | Draw 28% | Dordrecht 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Jong AZ 1.43 / Dordrecht 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 0.925 / def 1.013 | Dordrecht attack 0.977 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.594 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Dordrecht xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jong AZ vs Dordrecht FAQs
What time does Jong AZ vs Dordrecht kick off?
Jong AZ vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 22 January 2024 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs Dordrecht?
Jong AZ 5 - 1 Dordrecht.
Where is Jong AZ vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Dordrecht part of?
Jong AZ vs Dordrecht is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 22) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 37% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Jong AZ and Dordrecht will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Jong AZ vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Jong AZ's attack at 0.93x the league average against Dordrecht's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Jong AZ's last 59 games and Dordrecht's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
37%
2.71
28%
3.58
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
2.81
1.38
Dordrecht xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
9%
10.80
8%
11.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.9 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jong AZ vs Dordrecht Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.38 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong AZ come into this having played 59 games, going 22W 14D 23L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-D.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 1.20 PPG from 59 outings (18W 17D 24L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong AZ on 1.36 PPG, Dordrecht on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Jong AZ's home form reads 12W 9D 7L across their last 28 home games, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 0.93 points per game from their last 28 away games (6W 8D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong AZ are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.42 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
Jong AZ (Home) vs Dordrecht (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jong AZ
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Jong AZ vs Dordrecht Form FAQs
What form are Jong AZ and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 22W 14D 23L in their last 59 games (1.36 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 18W 17D 24L in their last 59 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Dordrecht away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.61 PPG; Dordrecht away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from January 2022. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Jan 2024, when Jong AZ won Jong AZ 5-1 Dordrecht.
Jong AZ's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jong AZ
3
Draws
3
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Jong AZ vs Dordrecht H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Dordrecht?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Jong AZ have won 4, Dordrecht have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Dordrecht last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Dordrecht 3-6 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Dordrecht?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 54%, Dordrecht 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Jong AZ) and 50% (Dordrecht).
On the defensive side: Jong AZ keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jong AZ vs Dordrecht Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jong AZ and Dordrecht matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Jong AZ's games and 64% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Jong AZ and Dordrecht matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Jong AZ's recent games and 50% of Dordrecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong AZ and Dordrecht matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Jong AZ's recent matches and 79% of Dordrecht's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jong AZ run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Dordrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat Dordrecht 5-1 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 22, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.43 xG and Dordrecht 1.38 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Jong AZ beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 0.93 / defence 1.01 against Dordrecht attack 0.98 / defence 0.97, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 37% | Draw 28% | Dordrecht 35%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 61%, Dordrecht 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Dordrecht's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.36 PPG, Dordrecht 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm. Dordrecht (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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