FC Eindhoven 0-1 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC Eindhoven face De Graafschap.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
De Graafschap travel to Jan Louwers Stadion to take on FC Eindhoven in Eerste Divisie (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Friday 19 January 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, FC Eindhoven have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
FC Eindhoven's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, De Graafschap stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, De Graafschap have posted 5W 0D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Eindhoven 1.30 PPG, De Graafschap 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for FC Eindhoven, 2 for De Graafschap and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2023, ended FC Eindhoven 1–2 De Graafschap — a De Graafschap win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC Eindhoven in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 57% versus De Graafschap 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 47% | De Graafschap 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FC Eindhoven surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while De Graafschap have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 1.61 xG and De Graafschap 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 0.865 / defence 0.999 | De Graafschap attack 1.138 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.624 / away 1.433. Data: built from FC Eindhoven's last 58 games and De Graafschap's last 58.
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 37% | Draw 26% | De Graafschap 37%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 2.72 | Draw 3.87 | De Graafschap 2.67. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 37% to win, with the draw at 26%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.61 / 1.63) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — FC Eindhoven 37% and De Graafschap 37%, with the draw at 26%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (FC Eindhoven's last 10 home games and De Graafschap's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Eindhoven 70% (last 10 home games) | De Graafschap 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 22 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 January 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 37% | Draw 26% | De Graafschap 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG FC Eindhoven 1.61 / De Graafschap 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 0.865 / def 0.999 | De Graafschap attack 1.138 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.624 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap level at 37% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.63
De Graafschap xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap FAQs
What time does FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 19 January 2024 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap?
FC Eindhoven 0 - 1 De Graafschap.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap part of?
FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 22) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 37% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Eindhoven's attack rating (0.86) and De Graafschap's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus FC Eindhoven's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Eindhoven's last 58 games and De Graafschap's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
37%
2.72
26%
3.87
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
3.24
1.63
De Graafschap xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
20%
5.09
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
7%
13.86
7%
13.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.3 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.63 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Eindhoven's recent record stands at 22W 19D 17L from 58 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-D in the last five.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 25W 10D 23L across 58 games — 1.47 PPG, with W-D-L-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Eindhoven on 1.47 PPG, De Graafschap on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Eindhoven have managed 12W 10D 7L from their last 29 home games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 11W 5D 13L across their last 29 away games, a 1.31 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.60 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
FC Eindhoven (Home) vs De Graafschap (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Eindhoven
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap Form FAQs
What form are FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 22W 19D 17L in their last 58 games (1.47 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 25W 10D 23L in their last 58 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or De Graafschap away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 1.59 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2022. They cover more than one competition — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 3 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 Feb 2023, when De Graafschap won FC Eindhoven 0-4 De Graafschap.
FC Eindhoven's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Eindhoven
2
Draws
5
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Eindhoven have won 3, De Graafschap have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 October 2026: FC Eindhoven 2-2 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 55%, De Graafschap 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (FC Eindhoven) and 72% (De Graafschap). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of FC Eindhoven's games and 62% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 72% of De Graafschap's.
Do FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of FC Eindhoven's recent matches and 83% of De Graafschap's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as De Graafschap edge out FC Eindhoven 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat FC Eindhoven 0-1 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.61 xG and De Graafschap 1.63 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Eindhoven fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.86 / defence 1.00 against De Graafschap attack 1.14 / defence 1.15, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 37% | Draw 26% | De Graafschap 37%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual De Graafschap win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 47%, De Graafschap 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
De Graafschap's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.47 PPG, De Graafschap 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.66 scoring average — below par going forward. De Graafschap (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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