Groningen 4-1 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Groningen at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Groningen vs Jong AZ encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jong AZ make the trip to Euroborg to face Groningen in Eerste Divisie (matchday 23). The match kicks off on Friday 26 January 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Groningen have collected 2.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Groningen's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Jong AZ (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Jong AZ's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Groningen's favour (2.10 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Groningen, 0 for Jong AZ and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 27 Nov 2023, ended Groningen 5–0 Jong AZ — a Groningen win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Groningen half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Jong AZ half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 51% versus Jong AZ 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 58% | Jong AZ 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.59 xG and Jong AZ 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.910 / defence 0.928 | Jong AZ attack 0.873 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.383. Data: built from Groningen's last 21 games and Jong AZ's last 60.
Result probabilities: Groningen 47% | Draw 27% | Jong AZ 26%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 2.12 | Draw 3.71 | Jong AZ 3.88. Groningen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Groningen at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Groningen if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Groningen's last 10 home games and Jong AZ's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Groningen 40% (last 10 home games) | Jong AZ 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 23 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Friday 26 January 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 47% | Draw 27% | Jong AZ 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Groningen 1.59 / Jong AZ 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.910 / def 0.928 | Jong AZ attack 0.873 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Groningen (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Jong AZ xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Groningen vs Jong AZ FAQs
What time does Groningen vs Jong AZ kick off?
Groningen vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 26 January 2024 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Jong AZ?
Groningen 4 - 1 Jong AZ.
Where is Groningen vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Jong AZ part of?
Groningen vs Jong AZ is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 23) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 47% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Groningen and Jong AZ will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Groningen vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Groningen's attack at 0.91x the league average against Jong AZ's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong AZ's attack (0.87x) against Groningen's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from Groningen's last 21 games and Jong AZ's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
47%
2.12
27%
3.71
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.71
1.12
Jong AZ xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
15%
6.49
5%
19.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.8 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Groningen vs Jong AZ Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Groningen and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Groningen and 1.12 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 55 outings, Groningen have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 14W 11D 30L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Jong AZ's form line: 19W 14D 22L from 55 games, 1.29 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for Groningen against 1.29 for Jong AZ. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Groningen have posted 1.19 PPG from their last 27 home games (9W 5D 13L).
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 7W 5D 15L from their last 27 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Groningen are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.49 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
Groningen (Home) vs Jong AZ (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Groningen
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ Groningen vs Jong AZ Form FAQs
What form are Groningen and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 14W 11D 30L in their last 55 games (0.96 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 19W 14D 22L in their last 55 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Jong AZ away?
Groningen's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.19 PPG; Jong AZ away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Groningen and Jong AZ, the earliest from November 2023. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent in our data was on 26 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Groningen
0
Draws
0
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Groningen vs Jong AZ H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Jong AZ?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Groningen have won 2, Jong AZ have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Jong AZ last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 January 2024: Groningen 4-1 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and Jong AZ?
Groningen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 48%, Jong AZ 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Groningen and 67% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen have failed to score in 37% of games; Jong AZ in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Groningen vs Jong AZ Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Groningen and Jong AZ matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Groningen's games and 63% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Groningen and Jong AZ matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Groningen's matches and 67% of Jong AZ's.
Do Groningen and Jong AZ matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Groningen's recent matches and 78% of Jong AZ's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Groningen run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Jong AZ.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen beat Jong AZ 4-1 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.59 xG and Jong AZ 1.12 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Groningen beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.91 / defence 0.93 against Jong AZ attack 0.87 / defence 1.06, drawn from 21/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 47% | Draw 27% | Jong AZ 26%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 58%, Jong AZ 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Jong AZ's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Groningen 0.96 PPG, Jong AZ 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Groningen win broke the near-deadlock. Groningen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Jong AZ (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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