Reggiana 0-2 Cittadella – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Reggiana take on Cittadella.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore plays host to Reggiana versus Cittadella in Serie B, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Reggiana have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Reggiana's home record at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore: 1W 7D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore this season.
Cittadella's overall Serie B record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cittadella away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Reggiana. A 1.20 PPG lead over Cittadella (1.50 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Reggiana lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2023, ended 0–1 with Cittadella winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Reggiana half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games).
Cittadella half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 55% versus Cittadella 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 39% | Cittadella 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 0.96 xG and Cittadella 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.685 / defence 1.020 | Cittadella attack 0.701 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.226. Reggiana's attack strength of 0.685 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 31 Reggiana games / 69 Cittadella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggiana 34% | Draw 36% | Cittadella 30%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 2.94 | Draw 2.78 | Cittadella 3.33. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.84 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Reggiana 70% | Cittadella 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Cittadella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 34% | Draw 36% | Cittadella 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 38% | xG Reggiana 0.96 / Cittadella 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.685 / def 1.020 | Cittadella attack 0.701 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.273 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Cittadella xG
38%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggiana vs Cittadella kick off?
Reggiana vs Cittadella kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Cittadella?
Reggiana 0 - 2 Cittadella.
Where is Reggiana vs Cittadella being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Cittadella part of?
Reggiana vs Cittadella is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Cittadella?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 34% chance of winning, Cittadella a 30% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Cittadella?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Reggiana and Cittadella will score (BTTS).
Will Reggiana vs Cittadella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Cittadella?
Record (1 meetings): Reggiana 0W | Draws 0 | Cittadella 1W.
What form are Reggiana and Cittadella in?
Reggiana (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Cittadella (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Reggiana's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Cittadella's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. Flip it around — Cittadella's attack (0.70x) against Reggiana's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 31/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.91
36%
2.79
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Reggiana xG
Total xG
1.84
0.88
Cittadella xG
2.91
34%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
14%
7.00
11%
8.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 14.0 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Cittadella?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.7%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Cittadella expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Reggiana and 0.88 for Cittadella, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Cittadella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Reggiana come into this having played 31 games, going 8W 16D 7L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-W.
On the other side, Cittadella sit at 1.26 PPG from 31 outings (10W 9D 12L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Reggiana against 1.26 for Cittadella. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Reggiana's home form reads 2W 10D 3L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Cittadella have taken 1.00 points per game from 15 outings (3W 6D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Reggiana are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Cittadella are on 1.13 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Current Season
Cittadella
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggiana and Cittadella in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 8W 16D 7L in their last 31 games (1.29 PPG), while Cittadella have gone 10W 9D 12L in their last 31 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggiana at home or Cittadella away?
Reggiana's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggiana at home: 1.07 PPG; Cittadella away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Reggiana or Cittadella been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggiana have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Cittadella in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reggiana have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cittadella — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Reggiana
0
Draws
3
Cittadella
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Cittadella?
From 4 meetings on record, Reggiana have won 1, Cittadella have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Cittadella last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2025, when Reggiana 2-1 Cittadella.
Who has won more matches between Reggiana and Cittadella?
Cittadella have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Cittadella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggiana 67%, Cittadella 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for Reggiana and 27% for Cittadella.
On the defensive side: Cittadella in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Cittadella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggiana play Cittadella?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Reggiana's games and 53% of Cittadella's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reggiana vs Cittadella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Reggiana's recent games and 27% of Cittadella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggiana and Cittadella tend to score early?
Reggiana have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Cittadella in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cittadella cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Reggiana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cittadella beat Reggiana 0-2 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 0.96 xG and Cittadella 0.88 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Reggiana fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Cittadella outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.69 / defence 1.02 against Cittadella attack 0.70 / defence 1.10, drawn from 31/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 34% | Draw 36% | Cittadella 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Cittadella win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 39%, Cittadella 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cittadella's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.29 PPG, Cittadella 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cittadella win broke the near-deadlock. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cittadella (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.