Ternana 0-0 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ternana at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ternana vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ternana host Modena at Stadio Libero Liberati in Serie B, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 April 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ternana stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Ternana's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Libero Liberati this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Modena have recorded 1W 7D 2L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Modena's away record: 1W 6D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ternana at 1.10 PPG versus Modena's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ternana register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Modena in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Ternana, 2 for Modena and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 1–2 with Modena winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ternana in-play tendencies (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Modena in-play tendencies (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 55% versus Modena 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 52% | Modena 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 1.22 xG and Modena 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 0.814 / defence 0.917 | Modena attack 1.025 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.239. Data: 69 Ternana games / 69 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 36% | Draw 30% | Modena 34%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Modena 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ternana are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ternana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Ternana 60% | Modena 90% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 36% | Draw 30% | Modena 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Ternana 1.22 / Modena 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 0.814 / def 0.917 | Modena attack 1.025 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Ternana (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Modena xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Modena kick off?
Ternana vs Modena kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Modena?
Ternana 0 - 0 Modena.
Where is Ternana vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Modena part of?
Ternana vs Modena is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 36% chance of winning, Modena a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ternana and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Modena?
Record (3 meetings): Ternana 1W | Draws 0 | Modena 2W.
What form are Ternana and Modena in?
Ternana (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Modena (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ternana's attack rating (0.81) and Modena's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Ternana's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
36%
2.75
30%
3.35
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.38
1.16
Modena xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
11%
8.80
10%
10.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.7 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.1 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Ternana and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Ternana and 1.16 for Modena, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ternana's recent record stands at 19W 18D 32L from 69 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Modena, meanwhile, have gone 21W 23D 25L across 69 games — 1.25 PPG, with D-L-L-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ternana on 1.09 PPG, Modena on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ternana have managed 11W 11D 12L from 34 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Modena's away record stands at 9W 10D 15L across 34 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Ternana are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.20 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Current Season
Modena
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Modena in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 19W 18D 32L in their last 69 games (1.09 PPG), while Modena have gone 21W 23D 25L in their last 69 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Modena away?
Ternana's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.29 PPG; Modena away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2022, when Modena won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ternana's record when hosting Modena specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ternana
1
Draws
2
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Modena?
From 4 meetings on record, Ternana have won 1, Modena have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Ternana 0-0 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Modena?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 50%, Modena 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Ternana) and 59% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Ternana have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Modena?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Ternana's games and 68% of Modena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ternana vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Ternana's recent games and 59% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Modena tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Modena in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ternana's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ternana and Modena finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 1.22 xG and Modena 1.16 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ternana fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Modena landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 0.81 / defence 0.92 against Modena attack 1.02 / defence 1.17, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 36% | Draw 30% | Modena 34%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 52%, Modena 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Modena's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ternana 1.09 PPG, Modena 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ternana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Modena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.