Udinese 1-1 Cagliari – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Udinese at 61% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Udinese face Cagliari.

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Analysis

Cagliari make the trip to Bluenergy Stadium to face Udinese in Serie A (matchday 25). The match kicks off on Sunday 18 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time.

Form

Udinese (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Udinese's form when playing at home: 1W 6D 3L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Cagliari's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Cagliari away from home: 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Udinese against 0.80 for Cagliari. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Udinese, 0 for Cagliari and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 17 Sep 2023, ended Udinese 0–0 Cagliari — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Udinese half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Cagliari half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 53% versus Cagliari 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 48% | Cagliari 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Udinese surrender their half-time lead 53% of the time, while Cagliari have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Cagliari surrender HT leads in 53% of cases while Udinese recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 39% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.88 xG and Cagliari 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.952 / defence 1.170 | Cagliari attack 0.646 / defence 1.356. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.112. Cagliari's defence rating of 1.356 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Udinese's projected output up. Cagliari's attack rating of 0.646 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.84. Data: built from Udinese's last 62 games and Cagliari's last 24.

Result probabilities: Udinese 61% | Draw 25% | Cagliari 15%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 1.65 | Draw 4.08 | Cagliari 6.69. The model has a clear lean to Udinese (61%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Udinese's last 10 home games and Cagliari's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Udinese 70% (last 10 home games) | Cagliari 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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