Frosinone 0-3 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Frosinone at 40%, yet in-form AS Roma provide a compelling counter-argument — this Frosinone vs AS Roma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Frosinone host AS Roma at Stadio Benito Stirpe in Serie A, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 February 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Frosinone — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Frosinone's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Benito Stirpe this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Frosinone are significantly better at Stadio Benito Stirpe than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, AS Roma have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, AS Roma have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. AS Roma are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Frosinone register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, AS Roma in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Frosinone, 1 for AS Roma and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2023, ended 0–2 with AS Roma winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Frosinone in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
AS Roma in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 55% versus AS Roma 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 55% | AS Roma 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.64 xG and AS Roma 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 1.104 / defence 1.375 | AS Roma attack 0.978 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.112. Data: 24 Frosinone games / 62 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Frosinone 40% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 33%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | AS Roma 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Frosinone are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form AS Roma (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Frosinone offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Frosinone 90% | AS Roma 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Feb 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 40% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Frosinone 1.64 / AS Roma 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 1.104 / def 1.375 | AS Roma attack 0.978 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
1.50
AS Roma xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs AS Roma kick off?
Frosinone vs AS Roma kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs AS Roma?
Frosinone 0 - 3 AS Roma.
Where is Frosinone vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs AS Roma part of?
Frosinone vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 40% chance of winning, AS Roma a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Frosinone and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and AS Roma?
Record (1 meetings): Frosinone 0W | Draws 0 | AS Roma 1W.
What form are Frosinone and AS Roma in?
Frosinone (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. AS Roma (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Frosinone's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Frosinone's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
40%
2.52
27%
3.71
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Frosinone xG
Total xG
3.14
1.50
AS Roma xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
22%
4.46
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
9%
11.26
6%
15.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.7 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Frosinone and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Frosinone and 1.50 for AS Roma, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 62 outings, Frosinone have picked up 1.66 PPG on a 30W 13D 19L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma's form line: 29W 14D 19L from 62 games, 1.63 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-L. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Frosinone on 1.66 PPG, AS Roma on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Frosinone have posted 2.07 PPG from 30 outings (19W 5D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.66 PPG overall — Frosinone are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, AS Roma have gone 10W 8D 12L from 30 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Frosinone are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.48 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 30W 13D 19L in their last 62 games (1.66 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 29W 14D 19L in their last 62 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or AS Roma away?
Frosinone's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 2.07 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Frosinone or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, AS Roma in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Frosinone and AS Roma runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Frosinone
0
Draws
2
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and AS Roma?
From 2 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 0, AS Roma have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2024, when Frosinone 0-3 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Frosinone and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 53%, AS Roma 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Frosinone) and 50% (AS Roma). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Frosinone keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Frosinone's games and 63% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Frosinone vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Frosinone's matches and 50% of AS Roma's.
Do Frosinone and AS Roma tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AS Roma run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Frosinone.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Frosinone 0-3 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.64 xG and AS Roma 1.50 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Frosinone fell 1.6 short of their projected output. AS Roma outscored their 1.50 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.10 / defence 1.38 against AS Roma attack 0.98 / defence 1.03, drawn from 24/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 40% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 33%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual AS Roma win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 55%, AS Roma 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
AS Roma's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Frosinone 1.66 PPG, AS Roma 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. Frosinone (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.