Genoa 2-0 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genoa at 34% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Genoa face Udinese.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Udinese travel to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to take on Genoa in Serie A (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Genoa have gone 3W 6D 1L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Genoa's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Udinese — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Udinese away from home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Genoa 1.50 PPG, Udinese 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Genoa have won 0, Udinese 0, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2023, ended Genoa 2–2 Udinese — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Genoa trading profile (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Udinese trading profile (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 46% versus Udinese 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 40% | Udinese 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Genoa surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Udinese have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 39% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Udinese surrender HT leads in 53% of cases while Genoa recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.19 xG and Udinese 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.842 / defence 1.146 | Udinese attack 0.895 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.150. Data: built from Genoa's last 25 games and Udinese's last 63.
Result probabilities: Genoa 34% | Draw 32% | Udinese 34%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.91 | Draw 3.16 | Udinese 2.95. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 34% to win, with the draw at 32%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Genoa 34% and Udinese 34%, with the draw at 32%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Genoa 60% (last 10 home games) | Udinese 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, matchday 26 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 34% | Draw 32% | Udinese 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Genoa 1.19 / Udinese 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.842 / def 1.146 | Udinese attack 0.895 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Genoa and Udinese level at 34% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Udinese xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Genoa vs Udinese FAQs
What time does Genoa vs Udinese kick off?
Genoa vs Udinese kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Udinese?
Genoa 2 - 0 Udinese.
Where is Genoa vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Udinese part of?
Genoa vs Udinese is a Serie A fixture (matchday 26) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 34% chance of winning, Udinese a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Genoa and Udinese will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Genoa vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Genoa's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Udinese's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Genoa's last 25 games and Udinese's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
34%
2.91
32%
3.16
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.37
1.18
Udinese xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
11%
9.46
10%
9.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 11.0 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Genoa vs Udinese Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Genoa and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Genoa and 1.18 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Genoa come into this having played 63 games, going 28W 20D 15L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-D.
On the other side, Udinese sit at 1.10 PPG from 63 outings (14W 27D 22L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-D across their last five.
Genoa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Udinese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Genoa's home form reads 16W 11D 4L across their last 31 home games, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Udinese have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 31 away games (7W 10D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genoa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Genoa are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.14 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Udinese
Blended
Genoa (Home) vs Udinese (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Genoa
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Genoa vs Udinese Form FAQs
What form are Genoa and Udinese in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 28W 20D 15L in their last 63 games (1.65 PPG), while Udinese have gone 14W 27D 22L in their last 63 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Udinese away?
Genoa's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.90 PPG; Udinese away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Genoa or Udinese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Udinese in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from November 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 20 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Genoa's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Genoa
3
Draws
1
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Genoa vs Udinese H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Udinese?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Genoa have won 4, Udinese have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Udinese last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 March 2026: Genoa 0-2 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Udinese?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Udinese see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 42%, Udinese 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Genoa) and 42% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Udinese in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Genoa vs Udinese Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Genoa and Udinese matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Genoa's recent matches and 45% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Genoa and Udinese matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Genoa's recent games and 42% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Udinese matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Genoa's recent matches and 58% of Udinese's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genoa cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Udinese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Udinese 2-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.19 xG and Udinese 1.18 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Genoa beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Udinese landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.84 / defence 1.15 against Udinese attack 0.90 / defence 0.98, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 34% | Draw 32% | Udinese 34%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 34%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 40%, Udinese 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Udinese's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Genoa arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.10. That form edge translated into the three points. Genoa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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