Udinese 1-2 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 41%, yet the head-to-head data favours AS Roma — this Udinese vs AS Roma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Udinese welcome AS Roma to Bluenergy Stadium in Serie A (matchday 22). Kick-off is Sunday 26 January 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Udinese stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Udinese have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, AS Roma have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
AS Roma's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 6D 4L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Udinese) versus 1.40 (AS Roma). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
AS Roma have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Udinese.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2024, ended Udinese 0–3 AS Roma — a AS Roma win.
The H2H data backs the away side. AS Roma have won 4 of 6 H2H matches, and at 3.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Udinese in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 61%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
AS Roma in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 58% versus AS Roma 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 42% | AS Roma 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.41 xG and AS Roma 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.886 / defence 1.014 | AS Roma attack 0.854 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.303. Data: built from Udinese's last 59 games and AS Roma's last 59.
Result probabilities: Udinese 41% | Draw 31% | AS Roma 28%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.43 | Draw 3.23 | AS Roma 3.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Udinese 40% (last 10 home games) | AS Roma 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, matchday 22 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 January 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 41% | Draw 31% | AS Roma 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Udinese 1.41 / AS Roma 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.886 / def 1.014 | AS Roma attack 0.854 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Udinese (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.13
AS Roma xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Udinese vs AS Roma FAQs
What time does Udinese vs AS Roma kick off?
Udinese vs AS Roma kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 26 January 2025 at Bluenergy Stadium.
What was the final score in Udinese vs AS Roma?
Udinese 1 - 2 AS Roma.
Where is Udinese vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium.
What competition is Udinese vs AS Roma part of?
Udinese vs AS Roma is a Serie A fixture (matchday 22) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 41% chance of winning, AS Roma a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Udinese and AS Roma will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Udinese vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Udinese's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Udinese's last 59 games and AS Roma's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
41%
2.43
31%
3.23
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.54
1.13
AS Roma xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
24%
4.08
Win to Nil
13%
7.53
7%
14.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.6 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Udinese vs AS Roma Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Udinese and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Udinese and 1.13 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Udinese come into this having played 59 games, going 13W 24D 22L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-L.
On the other side, AS Roma sit at 1.53 PPG from 59 outings (25W 15D 19L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Udinese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Udinese's home form reads 5W 13D 11L across their last 29 home games, a 0.97 PPG return.
Away from home, AS Roma have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 29 away games (6W 11D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.53 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AS Roma's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
Udinese are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.63 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
Udinese (Home) vs AS Roma (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Udinese
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Udinese vs AS Roma Form FAQs
What form are Udinese and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 13W 24D 22L in their last 59 games (1.07 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 25W 15D 19L in their last 59 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or AS Roma away?
AS Roma's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 0.97 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from March 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Sep 2022, when Udinese won Udinese 4-0 AS Roma.
Udinese's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Udinese
1
Draws
7
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Udinese vs AS Roma H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and AS Roma?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Udinese have won 2, AS Roma have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Udinese and AS Roma last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Udinese 2-5 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 64% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
AS Roma see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 59%, AS Roma 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Udinese) and 55% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: Udinese have failed to score in 28% of games; AS Roma in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Udinese vs AS Roma Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Udinese and AS Roma matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Udinese's games and 66% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Udinese and AS Roma matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Udinese's recent games and 55% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and AS Roma matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Udinese's recent matches and 55% of AS Roma's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AS Roma defy the odds to beat Udinese 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Udinese 1-2 at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.41 xG and AS Roma 1.13 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. AS Roma outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.89 / defence 1.01 against AS Roma attack 0.85 / defence 1.16, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 41% | Draw 31% | AS Roma 28%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual AS Roma win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 42%, AS Roma 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
AS Roma's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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