AS Roma 1-1 Napoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Napoli (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AS Roma face Napoli.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AS Roma host Napoli at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 February 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, AS Roma have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma's form when playing at home: 7W 0D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Olimpico this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Napoli — All Games: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Napoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Napoli away from home this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 away games — 2.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Napoli — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.70 vs 1.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, AS Roma have won 1, Napoli 3, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Napoli winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
AS Roma in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Napoli in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 60% versus Napoli 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 57% | Napoli 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.39 xG and Napoli 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.408 / defence 0.828 | Napoli attack 1.350 / defence 0.720. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.317. AS Roma carry an above-average attack strength of 1.408 — their λ of 1.39 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Napoli's defence strength of 0.720 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Napoli have an above-average attack strength of 1.350 — the away xG of 1.47 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 60 AS Roma games / 60 Napoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 33% | Draw 30% | Napoli 37%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Napoli 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Napoli at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Napoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. This conflicts with form data: AS Roma 40% | Napoli 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Napoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Feb 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 33% | Draw 30% | Napoli 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG AS Roma 1.39 / Napoli 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.408 / def 0.828 | Napoli attack 1.350 / def 0.720 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Napoli (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Napoli xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Napoli kick off?
AS Roma vs Napoli kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 2 February 2025 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Napoli?
AS Roma 1 - 1 Napoli.
Where is AS Roma vs Napoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Napoli part of?
AS Roma vs Napoli is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Napoli?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 33% chance of winning, Napoli a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Napoli?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both AS Roma and Napoli will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Napoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Napoli?
Record (7 meetings): AS Roma 1W | Draws 3 | Napoli 3W.
What form are AS Roma and Napoli in?
AS Roma (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Napoli (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AS Roma's attacking strength (1.41x league average) is weighed against Napoli's defensive record (0.72x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Napoli's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
33%
3.01
30%
3.36
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.86
1.47
Napoli xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
8%
13.10
9%
10.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.7 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Napoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Napoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for AS Roma and 1.47 for Napoli, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Napoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AS Roma come into this having played 60 games, going 26W 15D 19L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-W. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Napoli sit at 1.77 PPG from 60 outings (30W 16D 14L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Napoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AS Roma on 1.55 PPG, Napoli on 1.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
AS Roma's home form reads 19W 4D 7L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.03 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.55 PPG overall — AS Roma are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Napoli have taken 1.80 points per game from 30 outings (15W 9D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
AS Roma are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Napoli are on 1.53 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AS Roma have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Napoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Napoli in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 26W 15D 19L in their last 60 games (1.55 PPG), while Napoli have gone 30W 16D 14L in their last 60 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Napoli away?
AS Roma's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.03 PPG; Napoli away: 1.80 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Napoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Napoli in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AS Roma's record when hosting Napoli specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
AS Roma
5
Draws
4
Napoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Napoli?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 1, Napoli have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Napoli last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Napoli 2-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Napoli?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 53%, Napoli 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (AS Roma) and 50% (Napoli).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Napoli in 33%; Napoli in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Napoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Napoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of AS Roma's recent matches and 47% of Napoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Napoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of AS Roma's recent games and 50% of Napoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Napoli tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Napoli in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Roma and Napoli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 23, as AS Roma and Napoli drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.39 xG and Napoli 1.47 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.41 / defence 0.83 against Napoli attack 1.35 / defence 0.72, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 33% | Draw 30% | Napoli 37%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 57%, Napoli 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Napoli's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.55 PPG, Napoli 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.