AS Roma 3-1 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Roma vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Olimpico plays host to AS Roma versus Genoa in Serie A, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Friday 17 January 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
AS Roma (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma at Stadio Olimpico this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — AS Roma are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico than their overall form suggests.
Genoa's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Genoa are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for AS Roma, 1 for Genoa and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
AS Roma half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Genoa half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 59% versus Genoa 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 55% | Genoa 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.56 xG and Genoa 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.397 / defence 0.824 | Genoa attack 0.778 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.303. AS Roma carry an above-average attack strength of 1.397 — their λ of 1.56 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 58 AS Roma games / 58 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 53% | Draw 28% | Genoa 19%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Genoa 5.26. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Genoa (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 40% | Genoa 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Friday 17 Jan 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 53% | Draw 28% | Genoa 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG AS Roma 1.56 / Genoa 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.397 / def 0.824 | Genoa attack 0.778 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Genoa xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Genoa kick off?
AS Roma vs Genoa kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 17 January 2025 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Genoa?
AS Roma 3 - 1 Genoa.
Where is AS Roma vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Genoa part of?
AS Roma vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 53% chance of winning, Genoa a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both AS Roma and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Genoa?
Record (5 meetings): AS Roma 2W | Draws 2 | Genoa 1W.
What form are AS Roma and Genoa in?
AS Roma (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Genoa (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AS Roma's attack at 1.40x the league average against Genoa's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (0.78x) against AS Roma's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
53%
1.88
28%
3.54
19%
5.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.40
0.84
Genoa xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
5.37
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
23%
4.34
4%
25.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 11.9 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.84 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 58 outings, AS Roma have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 24W 15D 19L record — L-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genoa's form line: 17W 21D 20L from 58 games, 1.24 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-W. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for AS Roma against 1.24 for Genoa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AS Roma have posted 2.04 PPG from 28 outings (18W 3D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — AS Roma are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Genoa have gone 8W 9D 11L from 28 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AS Roma are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.07 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Genoa in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 24W 15D 19L in their last 58 games (1.50 PPG), while Genoa have gone 17W 21D 20L in their last 58 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Genoa away?
AS Roma's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.04 PPG; Genoa away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genoa won 4-1 on 28 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Genoa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
AS Roma
2
Draws
2
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Genoa?
From 8 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 4, Genoa have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Genoa 2-1 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Genoa?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Genoa see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 50%, Genoa 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (AS Roma) and 39% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Genoa in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of AS Roma's recent matches and 46% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of AS Roma's recent games and 39% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Genoa tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Genoa in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Roma cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Genoa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Genoa 3-1 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.56 xG and Genoa 0.84 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. AS Roma beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.40 / defence 0.82 against Genoa attack 0.78 / defence 0.87, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 53% | Draw 28% | Genoa 19%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 55%, Genoa 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Genoa's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.50 PPG, Genoa 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Genoa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.