Napoli 1-1 Torino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Napoli at 42% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Napoli vs Torino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Napoli host Torino at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in Serie A (matchday 28). Kick-off is Friday 8 March 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Napoli have gone 4W 4D 2L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Napoli at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Torino — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Torino have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Napoli at 1.60 PPG versus Torino's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Napoli hold a clear advantage across the 5 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 1 for Torino and 0 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Jan 2024, ended Napoli 0–3 Torino — a Torino win.
The head-to-head data gives Napoli an edge — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Patterns
Napoli in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Torino in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Napoli 48% versus Torino 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Napoli 54% | Torino 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Napoli 1.33 xG and Torino 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Napoli attack 1.027 / defence 1.015 | Torino attack 0.827 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.202. Data: built from Napoli's last 65 games and Torino's last 65.
Result probabilities: Napoli 42% | Draw 31% | Torino 27%. Fair-value odds: Napoli 2.37 | Draw 3.22 | Torino 3.74. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Napoli at 42% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Napoli 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Napoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Napoli's last 10 home games and Torino's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Napoli 70% (last 10 home games) | Torino 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Napoli vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, matchday 28 | Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona • Kick-off: Friday 8 March 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Napoli 42% | Draw 31% | Torino 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Napoli 1.33 / Torino 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Napoli attack 1.027 / def 1.015 | Torino attack 0.827 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Napoli (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Napoli xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Torino xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Napoli vs Torino FAQs
What time does Napoli vs Torino kick off?
Napoli vs Torino kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 8 March 2024 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What was the final score in Napoli vs Torino?
Napoli 1 - 1 Torino.
Where is Napoli vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What competition is Napoli vs Torino part of?
Napoli vs Torino is a Serie A fixture (matchday 28) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Napoli vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives Napoli a 42% chance of winning, Torino a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Napoli and Torino will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Napoli vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Napoli's attack rating (1.03) and Torino's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Torino's attack versus Napoli's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Napoli's last 65 games and Torino's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
42%
2.37
31%
3.22
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Napoli xG
Total xG
2.33
1.01
Torino xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
15%
6.49
7%
14.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.0 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Napoli vs Torino Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Napoli vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Napoli and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Napoli and 1.01 for Torino, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Napoli vs Torino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, Napoli have picked up 2.05 PPG on a 40W 13D 12L record — L-D-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Torino's form line: 23W 21D 21L from 65 games, 1.38 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Napoli are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Torino.
Venue Form
On home soil, Napoli have posted 2.06 PPG from their last 32 home games (20W 6D 6L).
On the road, Torino have gone 12W 8D 12L from their last 32 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Napoli are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 1.03 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Torino in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Napoli
Blended
Torino
Blended
Napoli (Home) vs Torino (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Napoli
Blended
Torino
Blended
❓ Napoli vs Torino Form FAQs
What form are Napoli and Torino in coming into this match?
Napoli have gone 40W 13D 12L in their last 65 games (2.05 PPG), while Torino have gone 23W 21D 21L in their last 65 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Napoli at home or Torino away?
Napoli's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Napoli at home: 2.06 PPG; Torino away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Napoli or Torino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Torino in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 6 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Mar 2023, when Napoli won Torino 0-4 Napoli.
Napoli's record when hosting Torino specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Napoli
1
Draws
2
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Napoli vs Torino H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Torino?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Napoli have won 7, Torino have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Napoli and Torino last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 March 2026: Napoli 2-1 Torino.
Who has won more matches between Napoli and Torino?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Napoli see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Napoli 53%, Torino 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Napoli) and 41% (Torino).
On the defensive side: Napoli keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Torino in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Napoli home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Napoli vs Torino Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Napoli and Torino matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Napoli's recent matches and 50% of Torino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Napoli and Torino matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Napoli's recent games and 41% of Torino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Napoli and Torino matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of Napoli's recent matches and 69% of Torino's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Napoli and Torino share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 28, as Napoli and Torino drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.33 xG and Torino 1.01 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 1.03 / defence 1.01 against Torino attack 0.83 / defence 0.91, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Napoli 42% | Draw 31% | Torino 27%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 54%, Torino 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Napoli's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Torino's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Napoli (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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