Bologna 0-1 Inter – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Inter at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Inter encounter.

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Match Analysis

Bologna host Inter at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Serie A (matchday 28). Kick-off is Saturday 9 March 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Bologna stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Bologna at home: 9W 1D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Bologna are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Inter — last 10 games: 9W 1D 0L — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Inter away from home: 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 away games — 2.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Inter are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 2.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Bologna, 1 for Inter and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.8 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended Bologna 2–2 Inter — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Bologna in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).

Inter in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 58% versus Inter 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 51% | Inter 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Bologna surrender their half-time lead 28% of the time, while Inter have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.17 xG and Inter 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.294 / defence 0.659 | Inter attack 1.715 / defence 0.628. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.196. Bologna carry an above-average attack rating of 1.294 — their 1.17 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Inter bring a tight defence (rating 0.628, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Bologna's projected output down. Inter have an above-average attack rating of 1.715, which lifts their away xG to 1.35. Bologna have a tight defence (rating 0.659), which is pulling Inter's projected output down. Data: built from Bologna's last 65 games and Inter's last 65.

Result probabilities: Bologna 31% | Draw 30% | Inter 40%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 3.26 | Draw 3.35 | Inter 2.53. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Inter as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inter offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Bologna 30% (last 10 home games) | Inter 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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