Fiorentina 2-2 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 43%, yet in-form AS Roma provide a compelling counter-argument — this Fiorentina vs AS Roma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Fiorentina welcome AS Roma to Stadio Artemio Franchi in Serie A (matchday 28). Kick-off is Sunday 10 March 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Fiorentina have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Fiorentina have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Fiorentina are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
AS Roma — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, AS Roma have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. AS Roma's 1.90 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Fiorentina's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Fiorentina have won 2, AS Roma 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Dec 2023, ended Fiorentina 1–1 AS Roma — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Fiorentina in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
AS Roma in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 51% versus AS Roma 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 43% | AS Roma 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.59 xG and AS Roma 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.209 / defence 0.869 | AS Roma attack 1.237 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.207. AS Roma have an above-average attack rating of 1.237, which lifts their away xG to 1.30. Data: built from Fiorentina's last 65 games and AS Roma's last 65.
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 43% | Draw 26% | AS Roma 30%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 2.31 | Draw 3.82 | AS Roma 3.28. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form AS Roma (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fiorentina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Fiorentina 40% (last 10 home games) | AS Roma 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, matchday 28 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 10 March 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 43% | Draw 26% | AS Roma 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Fiorentina 1.59 / AS Roma 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.209 / def 0.869 | AS Roma attack 1.237 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.30
AS Roma xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fiorentina vs AS Roma FAQs
What time does Fiorentina vs AS Roma kick off?
Fiorentina vs AS Roma kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs AS Roma?
Fiorentina 2 - 2 AS Roma.
Where is Fiorentina vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs AS Roma part of?
Fiorentina vs AS Roma is a Serie A fixture (matchday 28) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 43% chance of winning, AS Roma a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Fiorentina and AS Roma will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fiorentina vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fiorentina's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Fiorentina's last 65 games and AS Roma's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
43%
2.31
26%
3.82
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.88
1.30
AS Roma xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
12%
8.44
6%
16.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.5 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fiorentina vs AS Roma Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.30 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, Fiorentina have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 27W 17D 21L record — W-L-D-W-D across the most recent five.
AS Roma's form line: 32W 14D 19L from 65 games, 1.69 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fiorentina on 1.51 PPG, AS Roma on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fiorentina have posted 1.84 PPG from their last 32 home games (17W 8D 7L).
On the road, AS Roma have gone 12W 8D 12L from their last 32 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fiorentina are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.57 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
Fiorentina (Home) vs AS Roma (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fiorentina
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Fiorentina vs AS Roma Form FAQs
What form are Fiorentina and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 27W 17D 21L in their last 65 games (1.51 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 32W 14D 19L in their last 65 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or AS Roma away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.84 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Fiorentina or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fiorentina have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, AS Roma in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 24 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: AS Roma have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Oct 2024, when Fiorentina won Fiorentina 5-1 AS Roma.
Fiorentina's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Fiorentina
2
Draws
5
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Fiorentina vs AS Roma H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and AS Roma?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Fiorentina have won 3, AS Roma have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and AS Roma last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 August 2026: AS Roma 4-0 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 56%, AS Roma 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Fiorentina) and 53% (AS Roma).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fiorentina vs AS Roma Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fiorentina and AS Roma matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Fiorentina's games and 62% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Fiorentina and AS Roma matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Fiorentina's recent games and 53% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fiorentina and AS Roma matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 75% of AS Roma's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fiorentina and AS Roma share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 28, as Fiorentina and AS Roma drew 2-2 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.59 xG and AS Roma 1.30 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.21 / defence 0.87 against AS Roma attack 1.24 / defence 0.92, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 43% | Draw 26% | AS Roma 30%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 43%, AS Roma 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
AS Roma's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.51 PPG, AS Roma 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fiorentina (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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