AS Roma 3-2 Torino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as AS Roma face Torino.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Olimpico plays host to AS Roma versus Torino in Serie A (matchday 26). Kick-off: Monday 26 February 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
AS Roma have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
AS Roma's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — AS Roma are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Torino (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Torino have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for AS Roma, 1.60 for Torino — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for AS Roma, 0 for Torino and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Sep 2023, ended AS Roma 1–1 Torino — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
AS Roma half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Torino half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 52% versus Torino 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 49% | Torino 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.55 xG and Torino 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.347 / defence 0.986 | Torino attack 0.770 / defence 0.800. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.159. AS Roma carry an above-average attack rating of 1.347 — their 1.55 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Torino's attack rating of 0.770 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.88. Data: built from AS Roma's last 63 games and Torino's last 63.
Result probabilities: AS Roma 51% | Draw 30% | Torino 19%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.96 | Draw 3.36 | Torino 5.21. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (AS Roma's last 10 home games and Torino's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AS Roma 60% (last 10 home games) | Torino 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, matchday 26 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Monday 26 February 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 51% | Draw 30% | Torino 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG AS Roma 1.55 / Torino 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.347 / def 0.986 | Torino attack 0.770 / def 0.800 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Torino xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AS Roma vs Torino FAQs
What time does AS Roma vs Torino kick off?
AS Roma vs Torino kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Monday 26 February 2024 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Torino?
AS Roma 3 - 2 Torino.
Where is AS Roma vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Torino part of?
AS Roma vs Torino is a Serie A fixture (matchday 26) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 51% chance of winning, Torino a 19% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both AS Roma and Torino will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will AS Roma vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
AS Roma's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Torino's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. Flip it around — Torino's attack (0.77x) against AS Roma's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from AS Roma's last 63 games and Torino's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
51%
1.96
30%
3.36
19%
5.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.43
0.88
Torino xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
5.21
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
21%
4.71
4%
24.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.0 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AS Roma vs Torino Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.88 for Torino, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Torino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 63 outings, AS Roma have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 30W 14D 19L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Torino's form line: 23W 20D 20L from 63 games, 1.41 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.65 PPG for AS Roma against 1.41 for Torino. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AS Roma have posted 1.94 PPG from their last 31 home games (18W 6D 7L).
On the road, Torino have gone 12W 8D 11L from their last 31 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AS Roma are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 1.03 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Torino in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Torino
Blended
AS Roma (Home) vs Torino (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AS Roma
Blended
Torino
Blended
❓ AS Roma vs Torino Form FAQs
What form are AS Roma and Torino in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 30W 14D 19L in their last 63 games (1.65 PPG), while Torino have gone 23W 20D 20L in their last 63 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Torino away?
AS Roma's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 1.94 PPG; Torino away: 1.42 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Torino been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Torino in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between AS Roma and Torino, the earliest from May 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 14 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
AS Roma have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won Torino 0-3 AS Roma on 20 May 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Torino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
AS Roma
2
Draws
1
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ AS Roma vs Torino H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Torino?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, AS Roma have won 7, Torino have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Torino last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 September 2026: Torino 0-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Torino?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 45%, Torino 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (AS Roma) and 39% (Torino).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Torino in 32%; Torino in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AS Roma vs Torino Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AS Roma and Torino matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of AS Roma's recent matches and 48% of Torino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AS Roma and Torino matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of AS Roma's recent games and 39% of Torino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Torino matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of AS Roma's recent matches and 68% of Torino's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Torino 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Torino 3-2 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.55 xG and Torino 0.88 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. AS Roma beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Torino outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.35 / defence 0.99 against Torino attack 0.77 / defence 0.80, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 51% | Draw 30% | Torino 19%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 49%, Torino 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Torino's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.65 PPG, Torino 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Torino (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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