Atalanta 2-1 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atalanta at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Atalanta face AS Roma.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gewiss Stadium plays host to Atalanta versus AS Roma in Serie A (matchday 36). Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Current Form
Atalanta's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Atalanta's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Atalanta are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
AS Roma have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W L W D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, AS Roma have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Atalanta, 1.90 for AS Roma — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Atalanta, 1 for AS Roma and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Jan 2024, ended Atalanta 1–1 AS Roma — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Atalanta half-time and goal-timing data (last 72 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
AS Roma half-time and goal-timing data (last 72 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 56% versus AS Roma 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 57% | AS Roma 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.76 xG and AS Roma 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.352 / defence 0.892 | AS Roma attack 1.174 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.180. Atalanta carry an above-average attack rating of 1.352 — their 1.76 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Atalanta's last 72 games and AS Roma's last 73.
Result probabilities: Atalanta 49% | Draw 25% | AS Roma 26%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 2.05 | Draw 3.93 | AS Roma 3.88. Atalanta hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.76 / 1.24) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atalanta at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atalanta if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Atalanta's last 10 home games and AS Roma's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Atalanta 50% (last 10 home games) | AS Roma 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, matchday 36 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 49% | Draw 25% | AS Roma 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Atalanta 1.76 / AS Roma 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.352 / def 0.892 | AS Roma attack 1.174 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
1.24
AS Roma xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atalanta vs AS Roma FAQs
What time does Atalanta vs AS Roma kick off?
Atalanta vs AS Roma kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs AS Roma?
Atalanta 2 - 1 AS Roma.
Where is Atalanta vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs AS Roma part of?
Atalanta vs AS Roma is a Serie A fixture (matchday 36) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 49% chance of winning, AS Roma a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Atalanta and AS Roma will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Atalanta vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Atalanta's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (1.17x) against Atalanta's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from Atalanta's last 72 games and AS Roma's last 73 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
49%
2.05
25%
3.93
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Atalanta xG
Total xG
3.00
1.24
AS Roma xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
17%
5.84
Win to Nil
14%
7.06
4%
22.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.9 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atalanta vs AS Roma Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Atalanta and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Atalanta and 1.24 for AS Roma, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 72 outings, Atalanta have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 37W 13D 22L record — L-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
AS Roma's form line: 34W 18D 20L from 72 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.72 PPG for Atalanta against 1.67 for AS Roma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Atalanta have posted 1.94 PPG from their last 35 home games (21W 5D 9L).
On the road, AS Roma have gone 12W 11D 12L from their last 35 away games — 1.34 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Atalanta are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.54 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Current Season
AS Roma
Current Season
Atalanta (Home) vs AS Roma (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atalanta
Current Season
AS Roma
Current Season
❓ Atalanta vs AS Roma Form FAQs
What form are Atalanta and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 37W 13D 22L in their last 72 games (1.72 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 34W 18D 20L in their last 72 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or AS Roma away?
Atalanta's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 1.94 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.34 PPG.
Have Atalanta or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, AS Roma in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Atalanta and AS Roma, the earliest from March 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atalanta have gone 4W 0D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Atalanta
2
Draws
2
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Atalanta vs AS Roma H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and AS Roma?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Atalanta have won 6, AS Roma have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and AS Roma last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: AS Roma 2-1 Atalanta.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and AS Roma?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 57%, AS Roma 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Atalanta) and 57% (AS Roma). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atalanta keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atalanta vs AS Roma Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atalanta and AS Roma matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Atalanta's games and 66% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Atalanta and AS Roma matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Atalanta's matches and 57% of AS Roma's.
Do Atalanta and AS Roma matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Atalanta's recent matches and 71% of AS Roma's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atalanta edge out AS Roma 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat AS Roma 2-1 at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.76 xG and AS Roma 1.24 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.35 / defence 0.89 against AS Roma attack 1.17 / defence 0.96, drawn from 72/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 49% | Draw 25% | AS Roma 26%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 57%, AS Roma 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
AS Roma's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atalanta 1.72 PPG, AS Roma 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atalanta win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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