AS Roma 1-0 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Roma vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Olimpico plays host to AS Roma versus Genoa in Serie A, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
AS Roma (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
AS Roma at Stadio Olimpico this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Genoa's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Genoa's away record: 3W 6D 1L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for AS Roma, 1.30 for Genoa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — AS Roma have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Genoa in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for AS Roma, 1 for Genoa and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2023, ended 1–4 with Genoa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
AS Roma half-time and goal-timing data (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Genoa half-time and goal-timing data (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 55% versus Genoa 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 51% | Genoa 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.59 xG and Genoa 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.184 / defence 0.995 | Genoa attack 0.975 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.200. Data: 74 AS Roma games / 36 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 46% | Draw 27% | Genoa 27%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Genoa 3.70. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 60% | Genoa 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 46% | Draw 27% | Genoa 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG AS Roma 1.59 / Genoa 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.184 / def 0.995 | Genoa attack 0.975 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Genoa xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Genoa kick off?
AS Roma vs Genoa kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Genoa?
AS Roma 1 - 0 Genoa.
Where is AS Roma vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Genoa part of?
AS Roma vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 46% chance of winning, Genoa a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both AS Roma and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Genoa?
Record (3 meetings): AS Roma 1W | Draws 1 | Genoa 1W.
What form are AS Roma and Genoa in?
AS Roma (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Genoa (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AS Roma's attack at 1.18x the league average against Genoa's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (0.97x) against AS Roma's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 74/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
46%
2.17
27%
3.68
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.75
1.16
Genoa xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
14%
6.96
5%
18.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.8 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for AS Roma and 1.16 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 74 outings, AS Roma have picked up 1.66 PPG on a 35W 18D 21L record — L-W-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Genoa's form line: 32W 24D 18L from 74 games, 1.62 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.66 PPG for AS Roma against 1.62 for Genoa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AS Roma have posted 1.97 PPG from 37 outings (22W 7D 8L).
On the road, Genoa have gone 13W 12D 12L from 37 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AS Roma are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.30 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Genoa in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Current Season
Genoa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Genoa in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 35W 18D 21L in their last 74 games (1.66 PPG), while Genoa have gone 32W 24D 18L in their last 74 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Genoa away?
AS Roma's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 1.97 PPG; Genoa away: 1.38 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Genoa in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genoa won 4-1 on 28 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Genoa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
AS Roma
2
Draws
2
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Genoa?
From 8 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 4, Genoa have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Genoa 2-1 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Genoa?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 46%, Genoa 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (AS Roma) and 49% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Genoa in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of AS Roma's recent matches and 54% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of AS Roma's recent games and 49% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Genoa tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Genoa in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Genoa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Genoa 1-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.59 xG and Genoa 1.16 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Genoa landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.18 / defence 0.99 against Genoa attack 0.97 / defence 1.00, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 46% | Draw 27% | Genoa 27%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 51%, Genoa 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Genoa's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.66 PPG, Genoa 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. AS Roma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.