Genoa 2-1 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genoa at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genoa vs Sassuolo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Sassuolo travel to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to take on Genoa. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 May 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Genoa stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Genoa have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sassuolo — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Sassuolo's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Genoa 1.30 PPG, Sassuolo 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Genoa, 0 for Sassuolo and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2023, ended 2–1 with Genoa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Genoa in-play tendencies (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Sassuolo in-play tendencies (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 48% versus Sassuolo 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 41% | Sassuolo 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.80 xG and Sassuolo 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.916 / defence 1.073 | Sassuolo attack 0.867 / defence 1.441. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.172. Sassuolo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.441 — this is suppressing Genoa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Genoa games / 73 Sassuolo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 53% | Draw 25% | Sassuolo 22%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Sassuolo 4.55. Genoa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genoa are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genoa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Genoa 60% | Sassuolo 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 53% | Draw 25% | Sassuolo 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Genoa 1.80 / Sassuolo 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.916 / def 1.073 | Sassuolo attack 0.867 / def 1.441 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Genoa (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Sassuolo xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Sassuolo kick off?
Genoa vs Sassuolo kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Sassuolo?
Genoa 2 - 1 Sassuolo.
Where is Genoa vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Sassuolo part of?
Genoa vs Sassuolo is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 53% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Genoa and Sassuolo will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Sassuolo?
Record (3 meetings): Genoa 1W | Draws 2 | Sassuolo 0W.
What form are Genoa and Sassuolo in?
Genoa (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Sassuolo (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Genoa's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Sassuolo's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. The same calculation in reverse, Sassuolo's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
53%
1.88
25%
4.03
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.90
1.09
Sassuolo xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
16%
6.08
Win to Nil
18%
5.60
4%
27.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 10.9 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Genoa and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Genoa and 1.09 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Sassuolo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 73 outings, Genoa have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 31W 24D 18L record — W-D-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Sassuolo's form line: 19W 17D 37L from 73 games, 1.01 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Genoa are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sassuolo.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Genoa have posted 1.83 PPG from 36 outings (18W 12D 6L).
On the road, Sassuolo have gone 6W 8D 22L from 36 away games — 0.72 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genoa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Genoa are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.21 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Defensively: Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Current Season
Sassuolo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 31W 24D 18L in their last 73 games (1.60 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 19W 17D 37L in their last 73 (1.01 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Sassuolo away?
Genoa's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.83 PPG; Sassuolo away: 0.72 PPG.
Have Genoa or Sassuolo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Sassuolo in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Genoa and Sassuolo runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Genoa have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Genoa's record when hosting Sassuolo specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Genoa
2
Draws
0
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Sassuolo?
From 6 meetings on record, Genoa have won 4, Sassuolo have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Sassuolo last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Genoa 2-1 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Sassuolo?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 42%, Sassuolo 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Genoa) and 67% (Sassuolo).
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sassuolo in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Sassuolo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Genoa's recent matches and 56% of Sassuolo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Sassuolo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Genoa's recent games and 67% of Sassuolo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Sassuolo tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Sassuolo in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Genoa edge out Sassuolo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Sassuolo 2-1 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.80 xG and Sassuolo 1.09 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.92 / defence 1.07 against Sassuolo attack 0.87 / defence 1.44, drawn from 35/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 53% | Draw 25% | Sassuolo 22%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 41%, Sassuolo 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Sassuolo's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Genoa arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.01. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.