Sligo Rovers 2-0 Longford Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sligo Rovers at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sligo Rovers face Longford Town.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sligo Rovers host Longford Town at The Showgrounds in Premier Division (matchday 12). Kick-off is Friday 21 May 2021 at 20:45 UK time.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Sligo Rovers have won 1, Longford Town 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 2 Apr 2021, ended Sligo Rovers 1–0 Longford Town — a Sligo Rovers win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 1.32 xG and Longford Town 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 1.053 / defence 0.905 | Longford Town attack 0.642 / defence 1.488. League average goals — home 0.844 / away 1.291. Longford Town's defence rating of 1.488 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sligo Rovers's projected output up. Longford Town's attack rating of 0.642 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.75. Data: built from Sligo Rovers's last 11 games and Longford Town's last 11.
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 48% | Draw 33% | Longford Town 19%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 2.07 | Draw 3.07 | Longford Town 5.21. Sligo Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sligo Rovers as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sligo Rovers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 66% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 12 | Venue: The Showgrounds • Kick-off: Friday 21 May 2021 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 48% | Draw 33% | Longford Town 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Sligo Rovers 1.32 / Longford Town 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 1.053 / def 0.905 | Longford Town attack 0.642 / def 1.488 | league avg home 0.844 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Sligo Rovers (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Longford Town xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town FAQs
What time does Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 21 May 2021 at The Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town?
Sligo Rovers 2 - 0 Longford Town.
Where is Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town being played?
The match is being played at The Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town part of?
Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 12) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 48% chance of winning, Longford Town a 19% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sligo Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Sligo Rovers and Longford Town will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sligo Rovers's attack rating (1.05) and Longford Town's defence rating (1.49), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Longford Town's attack versus Sligo Rovers's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sligo Rovers's last 11 games and Longford Town's last 11 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sligo Rovers Win
48%
2.07
33%
3.07
19%
5.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
2.07
0.75
Longford Town xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
5.21
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
23%
4.39
5%
19.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 12.5 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.3 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Sligo Rovers and Longford Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Sligo Rovers and 0.75 for Longford Town, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sligo Rovers
Pre-Season
Longford Town
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Sligo Rovers (Home) vs Longford Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sligo Rovers
Pre-Season
Longford Town
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from April 2021. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 1 November 2021, some 5 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sligo Rovers have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Sligo Rovers's record when hosting Longford Town specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Sligo Rovers
0
Draws
0
Longford Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Longford Town?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Sligo Rovers have won 4, Longford Town have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sligo Rovers and Longford Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2021: Sligo Rovers 1-0 Longford Town.
Who has won more matches between Sligo Rovers and Longford Town?
Sligo Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sligo Rovers home games / Longford Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Sligo Rovers cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Longford Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sligo Rovers beat Longford Town 2-0 at The Showgrounds, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 1.32 xG and Longford Town 0.75 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 1.05 / defence 0.91 against Longford Town attack 0.64 / defence 1.49, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 48% | Draw 33% | Longford Town 19%, with Sligo Rovers to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.