Shamrock Rovers 0-1 Sligo Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sligo Rovers at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shamrock Rovers and Sligo Rovers meet at Tallaght Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Monday 24 May 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.08 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.233 / defence 1.033 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.943 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 0.928 / away 1.245. Data: 12 Shamrock Rovers games / 12 Sligo Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 32% | Draw 30% | Sligo Rovers 38%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Sligo Rovers 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sligo Rovers are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sligo Rovers if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 24 May 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 32% | Draw 30% | Sligo Rovers 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Shamrock Rovers 1.08 / Sligo Rovers 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.233 / def 1.033 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.943 / def 0.948 | league avg home 0.928 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Sligo Rovers (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Sligo Rovers xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 24 May 2021 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers 0 - 1 Sligo Rovers.
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 32% chance of winning, Sligo Rovers a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sligo Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and Sligo Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Sligo Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Sligo Rovers in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Shamrock Rovers's attack at 1.23x the league average against Sligo Rovers's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sligo Rovers's attack (0.94x) against Shamrock Rovers's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sligo Rovers Win
32%
3.16
30%
3.29
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
2.30
1.21
Sligo Rovers xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
9%
10.62
13%
7.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 12.2 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and Sligo Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 1.21 for Sligo Rovers, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Pre-Season
Sligo Rovers
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shamrock Rovers won 4-0 on 13 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shamrock Rovers have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sligo Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Shamrock Rovers
1
Draws
4
Sligo Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Sligo Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, Sligo Rovers have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and Sligo Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Sligo Rovers 1-2 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and Sligo Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / Sligo Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Sligo Rovers edge out Shamrock Rovers 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sligo Rovers beat Shamrock Rovers 0-1 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.08 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.21 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shamrock Rovers fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.23 / defence 1.03 against Sligo Rovers attack 0.94 / defence 0.95, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 32% | Draw 30% | Sligo Rovers 38%, with Sligo Rovers to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.