Longford Town 0-2 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Longford Town vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 11 as Longford Town welcome Bohemians to Bishopsgate Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 May 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Longford Town, 0 for Bohemians and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Mar 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Longford Town 0.79 xG and Bohemians 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Longford Town attack 0.863 / defence 1.174 | Bohemians attack 0.691 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 0.834 / away 1.301. Data: 10 Longford Town games / 10 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Longford Town 25% | Draw 36% | Bohemians 39%. Fair-value odds: Longford Town 4.00 | Draw 2.78 | Bohemians 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.84 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Longford Town vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Bishopsgate Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 May 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Longford Town 25% | Draw 36% | Bohemians 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 37% | xG Longford Town 0.79 / Bohemians 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Longford Town attack 0.863 / def 1.174 | Bohemians attack 0.691 / def 1.092 | league avg home 0.834 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Longford Town xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Bohemians xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Longford Town vs Bohemians kick off?
Longford Town vs Bohemians kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 15 May 2021 at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What was the final score in Longford Town vs Bohemians?
Longford Town 0 - 2 Bohemians.
Where is Longford Town vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What competition is Longford Town vs Bohemians part of?
Longford Town vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Longford Town vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Longford Town a 25% chance of winning, Bohemians a 39% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Longford Town vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Longford Town and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Longford Town vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Longford Town and Bohemians?
Record (1 meetings): Longford Town 0W | Draws 1 | Bohemians 0W.
What form are Longford Town and Bohemians in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Longford Town's attack rating (0.86) and Bohemians's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 0.79 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians's attack versus Longford Town's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
25%
4.02
36%
2.80
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Longford Town xG
Total xG
1.84
1.05
Bohemians xG
4.02
25%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
9%
11.53
18%
5.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 16.7 | 8.8 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Longford Town vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Longford Town and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Longford Town and 1.05 for Bohemians, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Longford Town vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Longford Town
Pre-Season
Bohemians
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Oct 2021, when Bohemians won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Longford Town's record when hosting Bohemians specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Longford Town
2
Draws
2
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Longford Town and Bohemians?
From 4 meetings on record, Longford Town have won 0, Bohemians have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Longford Town and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 2 October 2021, when Longford Town 1-4 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Longford Town and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Longford Town home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Bohemians cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Longford Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Longford Town 0-2 at Bishopsgate Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Longford Town 0.79 xG and Bohemians 1.05 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Bohemians outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Longford Town attack 0.86 / defence 1.17 against Bohemians attack 0.69 / defence 1.09, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Longford Town 25% | Draw 36% | Bohemians 39%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.