Shamrock Rovers 1-1 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shamrock Rovers at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shamrock Rovers and Derry City meet at Tallaght Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 May 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.38 xG and Derry City 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.382 / defence 1.006 | Derry City attack 0.739 / defence 1.196. League average goals — home 0.834 / away 1.301. Shamrock Rovers carry an above-average attack strength of 1.382 — their λ of 1.38 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 10 Shamrock Rovers games / 10 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 45% | Draw 31% | Derry City 25%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Derry City 4.00. Shamrock Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 May 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 45% | Draw 31% | Derry City 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Shamrock Rovers 1.38 / Derry City 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.382 / def 1.006 | Derry City attack 0.739 / def 1.196 | league avg home 0.834 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Derry City xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 15 May 2021 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City?
Shamrock Rovers 1 - 1 Derry City.
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 45% chance of winning, Derry City a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Derry City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Derry City in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Shamrock Rovers's attack rating (1.38) and Derry City's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (0.74x) against Shamrock Rovers's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
45%
2.24
31%
3.24
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
2.35
0.97
Derry City xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
17%
5.90
6%
16.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.8 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 0.97 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Pre-Season
Derry City
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 22 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shamrock Rovers have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Shamrock Rovers
3
Draws
2
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, Derry City have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 22 June 2026, when Shamrock Rovers 1-1 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and Derry City?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shamrock Rovers and Derry City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers and Derry City finished level at 1-1 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.38 xG and Derry City 0.97 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.38 / defence 1.01 against Derry City attack 0.74 / defence 1.20, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 45% | Draw 31% | Derry City 25%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.