Dundalk 4-1 UCD – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 72% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Dundalk face UCD.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
UCD make the trip to Oriel Park to face Dundalk in Premier Division (matchday 19). The match kicks off on Monday 5 June 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Dundalk have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Dundalk have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Dundalk are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
UCD (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
UCD's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Dundalk against 1.30 for UCD. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Dundalk, 1 for UCD and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 1 May 2023, ended Dundalk 2–0 UCD — a Dundalk win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Dundalk — key trading statistics (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
UCD — key trading statistics (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 45% versus UCD 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 47% | UCD 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 2.77 xG and UCD 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.298 / defence 1.275 | UCD attack 0.762 / defence 1.626. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.132. Dundalk carry an above-average attack rating of 1.298 — their 2.77 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. UCD's defence rating of 1.626 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dundalk's projected output up. UCD's attack rating of 0.762 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.10. Dundalk's defence rating of 1.275 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing UCD's projected output up. Data: built from Dundalk's last 55 games and UCD's last 54.
Result probabilities: Dundalk 72% | Draw 15% | UCD 12%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 1.38 | Draw 6.55 | UCD 8.03. The model has a clear lean to Dundalk (72%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.87. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.87 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (2.77 / 1.10) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Form (Dundalk's last 10 home games and UCD's last 10 away games) suggests only ~1.8 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 74% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
Poisson rates Dundalk as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.87 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Dundalk 40% (last 10 home games) | UCD 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs UCD | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 19 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Monday 5 June 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 72% | Draw 15% | UCD 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% (Under 26%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Dundalk 2.77 / UCD 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.298 / def 1.275 | UCD attack 0.762 / def 1.626 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.77
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.10
UCD xG
63%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dundalk vs UCD FAQs
What time does Dundalk vs UCD kick off?
Dundalk vs UCD kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Monday 5 June 2023 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs UCD?
Dundalk 4 - 1 UCD.
Where is Dundalk vs UCD being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs UCD part of?
Dundalk vs UCD is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 19) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs UCD?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 72% chance of winning, UCD a 12% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs UCD?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Dundalk and UCD will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Dundalk vs UCD have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Dundalk's attack at 1.30x the league average against UCD's defence at 1.63x — combine the two and it projects 2.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — UCD's attack (0.76x) against Dundalk's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from Dundalk's last 55 games and UCD's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (8.1%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
72%
1.38
15%
6.55
12%
8.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
2 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.77
Dundalk xG
Total xG
3.87
1.10
UCD xG
1.38
72%
Home win
6.55
15%
Draw
8.03
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
6%
15.96
Win to Nil
24%
4.15
1%
128.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dundalk vs UCD Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs UCD?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are Dundalk and UCD expected to score?
The model projects 2.77 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.10 for UCD, a combined total of 3.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs UCD?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dundalk's recent record stands at 18W 12D 8L from 38 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-W in the last five.
UCD, meanwhile, have gone 8W 8D 22L across 38 games — 0.84 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dundalk by 0.90 — a real, if not enormous, edge over UCD heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dundalk have managed 12W 5D 2L from their last 19 home games — 2.16 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.74 PPG overall — Dundalk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
UCD's away record stands at 4W 3D 12L across their last 19 away games, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dundalk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dundalk are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; UCD are on 0.82 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Defensively: Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
UCD
Current Season
Dundalk (Home) vs UCD (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dundalk
Current Season
UCD
Current Season
❓ Dundalk vs UCD Form FAQs
What form are Dundalk and UCD in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 18W 12D 8L in their last 38 games (1.74 PPG), while UCD have gone 8W 8D 22L in their last 38 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or UCD away?
Dundalk's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 2.16 PPG; UCD away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Dundalk or UCD been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, UCD in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Dundalk and UCD, the earliest from April 2022. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 3 November 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Dundalk have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dundalk won UCD 1-5 Dundalk on 3 Nov 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against UCD — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Dundalk
2
Draws
1
UCD
Recent Meetings
❓ Dundalk vs UCD H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and UCD?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Dundalk have won 5, UCD have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and UCD last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 November 2023: UCD 1-5 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and UCD?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
UCD are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 53%, UCD 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Dundalk) and 53% (UCD). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; UCD in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / UCD away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dundalk vs UCD Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dundalk and UCD matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Dundalk's recent matches and 42% of UCD's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dundalk and UCD matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Dundalk's matches and 53% of UCD's.
Do Dundalk and UCD matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Dundalk's recent matches and 84% of UCD's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dundalk run riot with a 4-1 hammering of UCD.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat UCD 4-1 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 2.77 xG and UCD 1.10 xG, a combined 3.87. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Dundalk beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.30 / defence 1.27 against UCD attack 0.76 / defence 1.63, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 72% | Draw 15% | UCD 12%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 72%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 47%, UCD 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
UCD's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dundalk arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dundalk (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm. UCD (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.