Cork City 1-2 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cork City at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cork City vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 20 as Cork City welcome Dundalk to Turner's Cross. Kick-off is set for Friday 9 June 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Dundalk — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Dundalk's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Cork City, 1 for Dundalk and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2023, ended 1–2 with Dundalk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cork City 1.28 xG and Dundalk 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cork City attack 0.989 / defence 1.022 | Dundalk attack 0.772 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.166. Data: 19 Cork City games / 56 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cork City 45% | Draw 28% | Dundalk 27%. Fair-value odds: Cork City 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Dundalk 3.70. Cork City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cork City as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cork City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cork City vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Turner's Cross • Kick-off: Friday 9 Jun 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cork City 45% | Draw 28% | Dundalk 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Cork City 1.28 / Dundalk 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Cork City attack 0.989 / def 1.022 | Dundalk attack 0.772 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Cork City (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Cork City xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Dundalk xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cork City vs Dundalk kick off?
Cork City vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 9 June 2023 at Turner's Cross.
What was the final score in Cork City vs Dundalk?
Cork City 1 - 2 Dundalk.
Where is Cork City vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Turner's Cross.
What competition is Cork City vs Dundalk part of?
Cork City vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Cork City vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Cork City a 45% chance of winning, Dundalk a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cork City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cork City vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Cork City and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Cork City vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cork City and Dundalk?
Record (2 meetings): Cork City 1W | Draws 0 | Dundalk 1W.
What form are Cork City and Dundalk in?
Dundalk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Dundalk away split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cork City's attack rating (0.99) and Dundalk's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dundalk's attack versus Cork City's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cork City Win
45%
2.23
28%
3.51
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Cork City xG
Total xG
2.20
0.92
Dundalk xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
18%
5.59
7%
13.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 10.2 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cork City vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Cork City and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Cork City and 0.92 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Cork City vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cork City
Pre-Season
Dundalk
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 September 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Dundalk have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Sep 2023, when Dundalk won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cork City's record when hosting Dundalk specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cork City
0
Draws
3
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cork City and Dundalk?
From 4 meetings on record, Cork City have won 1, Dundalk have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cork City and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 25 September 2023, when Dundalk 5-0 Cork City.
Who has won more matches between Cork City and Dundalk?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cork City home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Dundalk defy the odds to beat Cork City 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Cork City 1-2 at Turner's Cross, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cork City 1.28 xG and Dundalk 0.92 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Dundalk outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cork City attack 0.99 / defence 1.02 against Dundalk attack 0.77 / defence 0.93, drawn from 19/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cork City 45% | Draw 28% | Dundalk 27%, with Cork City to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Dundalk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.