UCD 1-3 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours St Patrick's Athl. (55%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as UCD face St Patrick's Athl..

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Analysis & Preview

St Patrick's Athl. travel to UCD Bowl to take on UCD in Premier Division (matchday 18). The game is scheduled for Friday 2 June 2023 at 20:45 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, UCD have gone 4W 1D 5L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

In front of their own supporters, UCD have posted 4W 0D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

St Patrick's Athl. — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. St Patrick's Athl. are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

St Patrick's Athl. have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 0 for UCD.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 31 Mar 2023, ended UCD 0–3 St Patrick's Athl. — a St Patrick's Athl. win.

The H2H data backs the away side. St Patrick's Athl. have won 5 of 5 H2H matches, and at 2.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

In-Play Data

UCD trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — UCD 45% versus St Patrick's Athl. 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (UCD 47% | St Patrick's Athl. 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects UCD 1.12 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: UCD attack 0.672 / defence 1.250 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.285 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.160. UCD's attack rating of 0.672 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.12. St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating of 1.238 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing UCD's projected output up. St Patrick's Athl. have an above-average attack rating of 1.285, which lifts their away xG to 1.86. UCD's defence rating of 1.250 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing St Patrick's Athl.'s projected output up. Data: built from UCD's last 53 games and St Patrick's Athl.'s last 54.

Result probabilities: UCD 23% | Draw 23% | St Patrick's Athl. 55%. Fair-value odds: UCD 4.42 | Draw 4.42 | St Patrick's Athl. 1.83. The model has a clear lean to St Patrick's Athl. (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (UCD's last 10 home games and St Patrick's Athl.'s last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: UCD 50% (last 10 home games) | St Patrick's Athl. 70% (last 10 away games).

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