Bohemians 2-1 UCD – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bohemians at 63% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians vs UCD encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bohemians and UCD meet at Dalymount Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Friday 17 March 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Dalymount Park, Bohemians have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
UCD have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, UCD have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Bohemians, who have won 3 of the last 4 meetings against UCD — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2022, ended 1–0 with Bohemians winning.
The historical record gives Bohemians a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
UCD — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 63% versus UCD 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 47% | UCD 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 2.11 xG and UCD 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.253 / defence 1.025 | UCD attack 0.832 / defence 1.194. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.153. Bohemians carry an above-average attack strength of 1.253 — their λ of 2.11 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 41 Bohemians games / 41 UCD games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 63% | Draw 20% | UCD 17%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1.59 | Draw 5.00 | UCD 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Bohemians (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.7 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 60% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 50% | UCD 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs UCD | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 17 Mar 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 63% | Draw 20% | UCD 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 55% | xG Bohemians 2.11 / UCD 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.253 / def 1.025 | UCD attack 0.832 / def 1.194 | league avg home 1.408 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
0.98
UCD xG
55%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs UCD kick off?
Bohemians vs UCD kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 17 March 2023 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs UCD?
Bohemians 2 - 1 UCD.
Where is Bohemians vs UCD being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs UCD part of?
Bohemians vs UCD is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs UCD?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 63% chance of winning, UCD a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs UCD?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Bohemians and UCD will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs UCD have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and UCD?
Record (4 meetings): Bohemians 3W | Draws 1 | UCD 0W.
What form are Bohemians and UCD in?
Bohemians (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. UCD (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bohemians's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against UCD's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.11. Flip it around — UCD's attack (0.83x) against Bohemians's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
63%
1.58
20%
4.97
17%
5.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Bohemians xG
Total xG
3.09
0.98
UCD xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.97
20%
Draw
5.99
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
12%
8.22
Win to Nil
24%
4.23
2%
49.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs UCD?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Bohemians and UCD expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Bohemians and 0.98 for UCD, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs UCD?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Bohemians have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 13W 11D 14L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five.
UCD's form line: 8W 8D 22L from 38 games, 0.84 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Bohemians are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against UCD.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bohemians have posted 1.53 PPG from 19 outings (8W 5D 6L).
On the road, UCD have gone 4W 3D 12L from 19 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bohemians are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; UCD are on 0.82 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
UCD
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and UCD in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 13W 11D 14L in their last 38 games (1.32 PPG), while UCD have gone 8W 8D 22L in their last 38 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or UCD away?
Bohemians's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.53 PPG; UCD away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Bohemians have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 3-0 on 29 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against UCD — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Bohemians
2
Draws
0
UCD
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and UCD?
From 8 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 6, UCD have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and UCD last play each other?
They last met on 12 October 2023, when UCD 1-2 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and UCD?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
UCD are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 63%, UCD 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Bohemians) and 53% (UCD). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: UCD in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / UCD away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play UCD?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Bohemians's recent matches and 42% of UCD's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians vs UCD usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Bohemians's matches and 53% of UCD's.
Do Bohemians and UCD tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, UCD in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bohemians edge out UCD 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat UCD 2-1 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 2.11 xG and UCD 0.98 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.25 / defence 1.02 against UCD attack 0.83 / defence 1.19, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 63% | Draw 20% | UCD 17%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 47%, UCD 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
UCD's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bohemians arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.84. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.