Cork City 0-2 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cork City at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cork City vs Shelbourne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 6 as Cork City welcome Shelbourne to Turner's Cross. Kick-off is set for Friday 17 March 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Across all Premier Division games this season, Shelbourne have recorded 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Shelbourne's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cork City 1.74 xG and Shelbourne 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cork City attack 1.157 / defence 1.077 | Shelbourne attack 0.866 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.107. Data: 5 Cork City games / 41 Shelbourne games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cork City 54% | Draw 24% | Shelbourne 22%. Fair-value odds: Cork City 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Shelbourne 4.55. Cork City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cork City at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cork City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (5 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cork City vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Turner's Cross • Kick-off: Friday 17 Mar 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cork City 54% | Draw 24% | Shelbourne 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Cork City 1.74 / Shelbourne 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Cork City attack 1.157 / def 1.077 | Shelbourne attack 0.866 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.107 • Poisson stance: Cork City (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Cork City xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Shelbourne xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cork City vs Shelbourne kick off?
Cork City vs Shelbourne kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 17 March 2023 at Turner's Cross.
What was the final score in Cork City vs Shelbourne?
Cork City 0 - 2 Shelbourne.
Where is Cork City vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at Turner's Cross.
What competition is Cork City vs Shelbourne part of?
Cork City vs Shelbourne is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Cork City vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives Cork City a 54% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Cork City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cork City vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cork City and Shelbourne will score (BTTS).
Will Cork City vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cork City and Shelbourne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cork City and Shelbourne in?
Shelbourne (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Shelbourne away split: 0.60 PPG from 10 | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cork City's attack rating (1.16) and Shelbourne's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shelbourne's attack versus Cork City's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (5/41 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cork City Win
54%
1.86
24%
4.18
22%
4.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Cork City xG
Total xG
2.77
1.03
Shelbourne xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
4.48
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
18%
5.68
Win to Nil
19%
5.22
4%
25.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.2 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cork City vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Cork City and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Cork City and 1.03 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Cork City vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cork City
Pre-Season
Shelbourne
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cork City and Shelbourne runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. They last met on 13 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Shelbourne have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Cork City's record when hosting Shelbourne specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Cork City
2
Draws
6
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cork City and Shelbourne?
From 8 meetings on record, Cork City have won 0, Shelbourne have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cork City and Shelbourne last play each other?
They last met on 13 October 2025, when Cork City 1-2 Shelbourne.
Who has won more matches between Cork City and Shelbourne?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cork City home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shelbourne cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cork City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne beat Cork City 0-2 at Turner's Cross, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cork City 1.74 xG and Shelbourne 1.03 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cork City fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Shelbourne outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cork City attack 1.16 / defence 1.08 against Shelbourne attack 0.87 / defence 1.02, drawn from 5/41 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cork City 54% | Draw 24% | Shelbourne 22%, with Cork City to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Shelbourne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.