Bohemians 2-2 Longford Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Bohemians take on Longford Town.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Longford Town travel to Dalymount Park to take on Bohemians. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 March 2021, 16:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 0.94 xG and Longford Town 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.977 / defence 1.150 | Longford Town attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.833 / away 0.880. Data: 1 Bohemians games / 1 Longford Town games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 32% | Draw 40% | Longford Town 28%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 3.12 | Draw 2.50 | Longford Town 3.57. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.80 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Longford Town | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Mar 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 32% | Draw 40% | Longford Town 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 39% | xG Bohemians 0.94 / Longford Town 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 0.977 / def 1.150 | Longford Town attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.833 / away 0.880 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Longford Town xG
39%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Longford Town kick off?
Bohemians vs Longford Town kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 27 March 2021 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Longford Town?
Bohemians 2 - 2 Longford Town.
Where is Bohemians vs Longford Town being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Longford Town part of?
Bohemians vs Longford Town is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Longford Town?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 32% chance of winning, Longford Town a 28% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Longford Town?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Bohemians and Longford Town will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Longford Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Longford Town?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians and Longford Town in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bohemians's attack rating (0.98) and Longford Town's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Longford Town's attack versus Bohemians's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 1/1 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.11
40%
2.51
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Bohemians xG
Total xG
1.80
0.86
Longford Town xG
3.11
32%
Home win
2.51
40%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.60
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
14%
7.35
11%
9.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.6 | 14.3 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.4 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Longford Town?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Longford Town expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Bohemians and 0.86 for Longford Town, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Longford Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Pre-Season
Longford Town
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bohemians and Longford Town runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Oct 2021, when Bohemians won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians's record when hosting Longford Town specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Bohemians
2
Draws
0
Longford Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Longford Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 2, Longford Town have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Longford Town last play each other?
They last met on 2 October 2021, when Longford Town 1-4 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Longford Town?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Longford Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Bohemians and Longford Town share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians and Longford Town finished level at 2-2 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 0.94 xG and Longford Town 0.86 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Bohemians beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Longford Town outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Longford Town attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 32% | Draw 40% | Longford Town 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.