Longford Town 0-1 Sligo Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Longford Town at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Longford Town face Sligo Rovers.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Longford Town host Sligo Rovers at Bishopsgate Stadium in Premier Division (matchday 3). Kick-off is Friday 2 April 2021 at 18:45 UK time.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Longford Town 1.23 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Longford Town attack 1.097 / defence 1.018 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.982 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 0.987 / away 1.027. Data: built from Longford Town's last 2 games and Sligo Rovers's last 2. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Longford Town 39% | Draw 33% | Sligo Rovers 29%. Fair-value odds: Longford Town 2.59 | Draw 3.04 | Sligo Rovers 3.51. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Longford Town at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Longford Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Longford Town 2 games, Sligo Rovers 2) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Longford Town vs Sligo Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 3 | Venue: Bishopsgate Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 2 April 2021 at 18:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Longford Town 39% | Draw 33% | Sligo Rovers 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Longford Town 1.23 / Sligo Rovers 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Longford Town attack 1.097 / def 1.018 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.982 / def 1.137 | league avg home 0.987 / away 1.027 • Poisson stance: Longford Town (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Longford Town xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Sligo Rovers xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Longford Town vs Sligo Rovers FAQs
What time does Longford Town vs Sligo Rovers kick off?
Longford Town vs Sligo Rovers kicked off at 18:45 UK time on Friday 2 April 2021 at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What was the final score in Longford Town vs Sligo Rovers?
Longford Town 0 - 1 Sligo Rovers.
Where is Longford Town vs Sligo Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What competition is Longford Town vs Sligo Rovers part of?
Longford Town vs Sligo Rovers is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 3) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Longford Town vs Sligo Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Longford Town a 39% chance of winning, Sligo Rovers a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Longford Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Longford Town vs Sligo Rovers?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Longford Town and Sligo Rovers will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Longford Town vs Sligo Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Longford Town's attack at 1.10x the league average against Sligo Rovers's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sligo Rovers's attack versus Longford Town's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Longford Town's last 2 games and Sligo Rovers's last 2, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Longford Town Win
39%
2.59
33%
3.04
29%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Longford Town xG
Total xG
2.26
1.03
Sligo Rovers xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.51
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
14%
7.23
8%
12.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 10.7 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.2 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Longford Town vs Sligo Rovers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Longford Town vs Sligo Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Longford Town and Sligo Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Longford Town and 1.03 for Sligo Rovers, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Longford Town vs Sligo Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Longford Town
Pre-Season
Sligo Rovers
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Longford Town (Home) vs Sligo Rovers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Longford Town
Pre-Season
Sligo Rovers
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2021. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 1 November 2021, some 5 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sligo Rovers have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Longford Town's record when hosting Sligo Rovers specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Longford Town
0
Draws
4
Sligo Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Longford Town vs Sligo Rovers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Longford Town and Sligo Rovers?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Longford Town have won 0, Sligo Rovers have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Longford Town and Sligo Rovers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2021: Sligo Rovers 1-0 Longford Town.
Who has won more matches between Longford Town and Sligo Rovers?
Sligo Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Longford Town home games / Sligo Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Sligo Rovers defy the odds to beat Longford Town 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sligo Rovers beat Longford Town 0-1 at Bishopsgate Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Longford Town 1.23 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.03 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Longford Town fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Longford Town attack 1.10 / defence 1.02 against Sligo Rovers attack 0.98 / defence 1.14, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Longford Town 39% | Draw 33% | Sligo Rovers 29%, with Longford Town to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Sligo Rovers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.