Derry City 0-2 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shamrock Rovers at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Derry City and Shamrock Rovers meet at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 13 April 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 0.91 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 0.952 / defence 1.280 | Shamrock Rovers attack 0.827 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 0.821 / away 1.215. Data: 3 Derry City games / 3 Shamrock Rovers games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Derry City 26% | Draw 28% | Shamrock Rovers 45%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | Shamrock Rovers 2.22. Shamrock Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Apr 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 26% | Draw 28% | Shamrock Rovers 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Derry City 0.91 / Shamrock Rovers 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 0.952 / def 1.280 | Shamrock Rovers attack 0.827 / def 1.165 | league avg home 0.821 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Shamrock Rovers xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 13 April 2021 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Derry City 0 - 2 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 26% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Derry City and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Shamrock Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Derry City and Shamrock Rovers in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Derry City's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Shamrock Rovers's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. Flip it around — Shamrock Rovers's attack (0.83x) against Derry City's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
26%
3.79
28%
3.51
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.20
1.29
Shamrock Rovers xG
3.79
26%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
7%
13.73
18%
5.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 14.3 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Derry City and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Derry City and 1.29 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Pre-Season
Shamrock Rovers
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 22 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derry City have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shamrock Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Derry City
3
Draws
5
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Shamrock Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Derry City have won 2, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 22 June 2026, when Shamrock Rovers 1-1 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shamrock Rovers cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Derry City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Derry City 0-2 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 0.91 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.29 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Derry City fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 0.95 / defence 1.28 against Shamrock Rovers attack 0.83 / defence 1.17, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 26% | Draw 28% | Shamrock Rovers 45%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.