PAS Giannina 1-4 Lamia – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Lamia at 35% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAS Giannina vs Lamia encounter.

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Analysis

Lamia make the trip to Stadio Zosimades to face PAS Giannina in Super League 1 (matchday 21). The match kicks off on Sunday 4 February 2024 at 15:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

PAS Giannina have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

PAS Giannina's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — PAS Giannina are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Lamia's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Lamia have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

On a straight form reading, Lamia are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Oct 2023, ended PAS Giannina 1–2 Lamia — a Lamia win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

PAS Giannina — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

Lamia — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAS Giannina 55% versus Lamia 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAS Giannina 47% | Lamia 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 1.12 xG and Lamia 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 0.678 / defence 0.996 | Lamia attack 0.883 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.298. PAS Giannina's attack rating of 0.678 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.12. Data: built from PAS Giannina's last 46 games and Lamia's last 46.

Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 34% | Draw 31% | Lamia 35%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 2.95 | Draw 3.21 | Lamia 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Lamia are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lamia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: PAS Giannina 30% (last 10 home games) | Lamia 50% (last 10 away games).

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