Panserraikos 3-0 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panserraikos at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Panserraikos face Volos NFC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Panserraikos host Volos NFC at Dimotiko Stadio Serron in Super League 1 (Relegation Round - 6). Kick-off is Monday 5 May 2025 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Panserraikos — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
At home, Panserraikos have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Volos NFC stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Volos NFC's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Panserraikos 1.10 PPG, Volos NFC 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Panserraikos have won 1, Volos NFC 3, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Apr 2025, ended Panserraikos 0–3 Volos NFC — a Volos NFC win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Panserraikos in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Volos NFC in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panserraikos 52% versus Volos NFC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panserraikos 53% | Volos NFC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panserraikos 1.43 xG and Volos NFC 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panserraikos attack 1.001 / defence 1.254 | Volos NFC attack 0.846 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.093. Panserraikos's defence rating of 1.254 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Volos NFC's projected output up. Data: built from Panserraikos's last 52 games and Volos NFC's last 52.
Result probabilities: Panserraikos 43% | Draw 26% | Volos NFC 31%. Fair-value odds: Panserraikos 2.32 | Draw 3.82 | Volos NFC 3.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Panserraikos as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Panserraikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Panserraikos 70% (last 10 home games) | Volos NFC 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panserraikos vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 6 | Venue: Dimotiko Stadio Serron • Kick-off: Monday 5 May 2025 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panserraikos 43% | Draw 26% | Volos NFC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Panserraikos 1.43 / Volos NFC 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Panserraikos attack 1.001 / def 1.254 | Volos NFC attack 0.846 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Panserraikos (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Panserraikos xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Volos NFC xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Panserraikos vs Volos NFC FAQs
What time does Panserraikos vs Volos NFC kick off?
Panserraikos vs Volos NFC kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Monday 5 May 2025 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What was the final score in Panserraikos vs Volos NFC?
Panserraikos 3 - 0 Volos NFC.
Where is Panserraikos vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What competition is Panserraikos vs Volos NFC part of?
Panserraikos vs Volos NFC is a Super League 1 fixture (Relegation Round - 6) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panserraikos vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Panserraikos a 43% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Panserraikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panserraikos vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Panserraikos and Volos NFC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Panserraikos vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Panserraikos's attack rating (1.00) and Volos NFC's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus Panserraikos's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Panserraikos's last 52 games and Volos NFC's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panserraikos Win
43%
2.32
26%
3.82
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Panserraikos xG
Total xG
2.58
1.16
Volos NFC xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
14%
7.39
7%
13.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.5 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Panserraikos vs Volos NFC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Panserraikos vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Panserraikos and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Panserraikos and 1.16 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Panserraikos vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Panserraikos come into this having played 64 games, going 18W 17D 29L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Volos NFC sit at 1.03 PPG from 64 outings (17W 15D 32L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Panserraikos on 1.11 PPG, Volos NFC on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Panserraikos's home form reads 12W 12D 8L across their last 32 home games, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Volos NFC have taken 1.06 points per game from their last 32 away games (9W 7D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panserraikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Panserraikos are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 1.00 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panserraikos
Current Season
Volos NFC
Current Season
Panserraikos (Home) vs Volos NFC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Panserraikos
Current Season
Volos NFC
Current Season
❓ Panserraikos vs Volos NFC Form FAQs
What form are Panserraikos and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Panserraikos have gone 18W 17D 29L in their last 64 games (1.11 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 17W 15D 32L in their last 64 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panserraikos at home or Volos NFC away?
Panserraikos's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panserraikos at home: 1.50 PPG; Volos NFC away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from November 2023. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was on 22 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 28 Apr 2025, when Volos NFC won Volos NFC 3-0 Panserraikos.
Panserraikos's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Panserraikos
2
Draws
4
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Panserraikos vs Volos NFC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and Volos NFC?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Panserraikos have won 3, Volos NFC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Panserraikos and Volos NFC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2026: Panserraikos 2-1 Volos NFC.
Who has won more matches between Panserraikos and Volos NFC?
Volos NFC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panserraikos 62%, Volos NFC 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Panserraikos) and 47% (Volos NFC).
On the defensive side: Volos NFC in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panserraikos home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Panserraikos vs Volos NFC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Panserraikos and Volos NFC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Panserraikos's recent matches and 44% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Panserraikos and Volos NFC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Panserraikos's recent games and 47% of Volos NFC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panserraikos and Volos NFC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Panserraikos's recent matches and 69% of Volos NFC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Panserraikos run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Volos NFC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panserraikos beat Volos NFC 3-0 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Relegation Round - 6, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 1.43 xG and Volos NFC 1.16 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Panserraikos beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Volos NFC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 1.00 / defence 1.25 against Volos NFC attack 0.85 / defence 1.12, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 43% | Draw 26% | Volos NFC 31%, with Panserraikos to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 53%, Volos NFC 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panserraikos's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Volos NFC's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panserraikos 1.11 PPG, Volos NFC 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panserraikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panserraikos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.