Kallithea 0-0 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panetolikos at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Kallithea face Panetolikos.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Panetolikos make the trip to Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis to face Kallithea in Super League 1 (Relegation Round - 6). The match kicks off on Monday 5 May 2025 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
Kallithea (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Kallithea's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Panetolikos's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Panetolikos's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Kallithea against 1.20 for Panetolikos. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Kallithea, 1 for Panetolikos and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 28 Apr 2025, ended Kallithea 1–0 Panetolikos — a Kallithea win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Kallithea goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Panetolikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 13% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kallithea 55% versus Panetolikos 29%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kallithea 48% | Panetolikos 19%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kallithea 1.07 xG and Panetolikos 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kallithea attack 0.907 / defence 1.275 | Panetolikos attack 0.803 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.093. Kallithea's defence rating of 1.275 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Panetolikos's projected output up. Data: built from Kallithea's last 26 games and Panetolikos's last 52.
Result probabilities: Kallithea 34% | Draw 29% | Panetolikos 37%. Fair-value odds: Kallithea 2.92 | Draw 3.43 | Panetolikos 2.73. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Panetolikos as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panetolikos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Kallithea's last 10 home games and Panetolikos's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Kallithea 70% (last 10 home games) | Panetolikos 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kallithea vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 6 | Venue: Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis • Kick-off: Monday 5 May 2025 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kallithea 34% | Draw 29% | Panetolikos 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Kallithea 1.07 / Panetolikos 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Kallithea attack 0.907 / def 1.275 | Panetolikos attack 0.803 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Kallithea xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Panetolikos xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kallithea vs Panetolikos FAQs
What time does Kallithea vs Panetolikos kick off?
Kallithea vs Panetolikos kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Monday 5 May 2025 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What was the final score in Kallithea vs Panetolikos?
Kallithea 0 - 0 Panetolikos.
Where is Kallithea vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What competition is Kallithea vs Panetolikos part of?
Kallithea vs Panetolikos is a Super League 1 fixture (Relegation Round - 6) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Kallithea vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives Kallithea a 34% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kallithea vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Kallithea and Panetolikos will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Kallithea vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Kallithea's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Panetolikos's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. Flip it around — Panetolikos's attack (0.80x) against Kallithea's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from Kallithea's last 26 games and Panetolikos's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
34%
2.92
29%
3.43
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Kallithea xG
Total xG
2.19
1.12
Panetolikos xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
11%
8.94
13%
7.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 12.5 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kallithea vs Panetolikos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kallithea vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Kallithea and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Kallithea and 1.12 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Kallithea vs Panetolikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 31 outings, Kallithea have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 6W 10D 15L record — D-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Panetolikos's form line: 10W 8D 13L from 31 games, 1.23 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.90 PPG for Kallithea against 1.23 for Panetolikos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Kallithea have posted 0.93 PPG from their last 15 home games (3W 5D 7L).
On the road, Panetolikos have gone 4W 6D 5L from their last 15 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Kallithea are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 0.74 scored and 0.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Panetolikos in 29%.
Defensively: Panetolikos in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kallithea
Current Season
Panetolikos
Current Season
Kallithea (Home) vs Panetolikos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kallithea
Current Season
Panetolikos
Current Season
❓ Kallithea vs Panetolikos Form FAQs
What form are Kallithea and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
Kallithea have gone 6W 10D 15L in their last 31 games (0.90 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 10W 8D 13L in their last 31 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kallithea at home or Panetolikos away?
Panetolikos's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kallithea at home: 0.93 PPG; Panetolikos away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Kallithea or Panetolikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kallithea have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Panetolikos in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Kallithea and Panetolikos, the earliest from November 2024. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 5 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kallithea have gone 0W 2D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Panetolikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Kallithea
2
Draws
1
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Kallithea vs Panetolikos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kallithea and Panetolikos?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Kallithea have won 1, Panetolikos have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kallithea and Panetolikos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 May 2025: Kallithea 0-0 Panetolikos.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kallithea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Panetolikos see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kallithea 67%, Panetolikos 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Kallithea) and 13% (Panetolikos).
On the defensive side: Panetolikos in 40%; Kallithea have failed to score in 27% of games; Panetolikos in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kallithea home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kallithea vs Panetolikos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kallithea and Panetolikos matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Kallithea's recent matches and 33% of Panetolikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kallithea and Panetolikos matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Kallithea's recent games and 13% of Panetolikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kallithea and Panetolikos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Kallithea's recent matches and 53% of Panetolikos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kallithea's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Relegation Round - 6, as Kallithea and Panetolikos drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kallithea 1.07 xG and Panetolikos 1.12 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kallithea fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Panetolikos landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kallithea attack 0.91 / defence 1.27 against Panetolikos attack 0.80 / defence 0.93, drawn from 26/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kallithea 34% | Draw 29% | Panetolikos 37%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kallithea 48%, Panetolikos 19%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kallithea's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Panetolikos's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kallithea 0.90 PPG, Panetolikos 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kallithea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line. Panetolikos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.