Lamia 2-3 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Levadiakos at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lamia vs Levadiakos encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Levadiakos travel to Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias to take on Lamia in Super League 1 (Relegation Round - 6). The game is scheduled for Monday 5 May 2025 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Lamia stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

In front of their own supporters, Lamia have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Levadiakos — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Levadiakos's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Levadiakos are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Lamia, 1 for Levadiakos and 4 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 6 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 28 Apr 2025, ended Lamia 0–0 Levadiakos — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Lamia in-play tendencies (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 61% of games.

Levadiakos in-play tendencies (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 32% versus Levadiakos 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 36% | Levadiakos 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Lamia surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Levadiakos have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 62% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 0.97 xG and Levadiakos 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.801 / defence 1.102 | Levadiakos attack 0.929 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.093. Data: built from Lamia's last 52 games and Levadiakos's last 26.

Result probabilities: Lamia 31% | Draw 30% | Levadiakos 39%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 3.20 | Draw 3.34 | Levadiakos 2.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Levadiakos as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levadiakos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Under 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Lamia's last 10 home games and Levadiakos's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.5 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lamia 30% (last 10 home games) | Levadiakos 40% (last 10 away games).

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