Levadiakos 4-1 Kallithea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Levadiakos (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Levadiakos face Kallithea.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kallithea make the trip to Stadio Levadias to face Levadiakos in Super League 1, Relegation Round - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 May 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Levadiakos (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Stadio Levadias, Levadiakos have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Levadias this season.
Kallithea's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Kallithea away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Levadiakos's 2.00 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Kallithea's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Levadiakos lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2025, ended 3–0 with Levadiakos winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Levadiakos half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Kallithea half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 53% versus Kallithea 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 50% | Kallithea 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.38 xG and Kallithea 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.923 / defence 1.181 | Kallithea attack 0.773 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.093. Data: 26 Levadiakos games / 26 Kallithea games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 46% | Draw 27% | Kallithea 27%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Kallithea 3.70. Levadiakos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Levadiakos at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Levadiakos if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Levadiakos 50% | Kallithea 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Kallithea | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 7 | Venue: Stadio Levadias • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 46% | Draw 27% | Kallithea 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Levadiakos 1.38 / Kallithea 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.923 / def 1.181 | Kallithea attack 0.773 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Kallithea xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Kallithea kick off?
Levadiakos vs Kallithea kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Stadio Levadias.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs Kallithea?
Levadiakos 4 - 1 Kallithea.
Where is Levadiakos vs Kallithea being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Levadias.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Kallithea part of?
Levadiakos vs Kallithea is a Relegation Round - 7 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Kallithea?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 46% chance of winning, Kallithea a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Kallithea?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Levadiakos and Kallithea will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Kallithea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Kallithea?
Record (3 meetings): Levadiakos 2W | Draws 1 | Kallithea 0W.
What form are Levadiakos and Kallithea in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Kallithea (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Levadiakos's attack at 0.92x the league average against Kallithea's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kallithea's attack (0.77x) against Levadiakos's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
46%
2.19
27%
3.68
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.38
1.00
Kallithea xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
17%
5.94
7%
14.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Kallithea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Kallithea expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.00 for Kallithea, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Kallithea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Levadiakos's recent record stands at 10W 11D 11L from 32 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five.
Kallithea, meanwhile, have gone 6W 11D 15L across 32 games — 0.91 PPG, with W-L-L-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Levadiakos against 0.91 for Kallithea. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Levadiakos have managed 4W 5D 6L from 15 games — 1.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kallithea's away record stands at 3W 4D 8L across 15 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Levadiakos are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Kallithea are on 0.91 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Current Season
Kallithea
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and Kallithea in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 10W 11D 11L in their last 32 games (1.28 PPG), while Kallithea have gone 6W 11D 15L in their last 32 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Kallithea away?
Levadiakos's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.13 PPG; Kallithea away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Levadiakos have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Levadiakos won 0-3 on 23 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levadiakos have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Kallithea — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Levadiakos
1
Draws
0
Kallithea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Kallithea?
From 4 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 3, Kallithea have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Kallithea last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Levadiakos 4-1 Kallithea.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and Kallithea?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Levadiakos see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Kallithea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 47%, Kallithea 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Levadiakos) and 40% (Kallithea).
On the defensive side: Levadiakos have failed to score in 40% of games; Kallithea in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Kallithea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play Kallithea?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 47% of Kallithea's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs Kallithea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Levadiakos's recent games and 40% of Kallithea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levadiakos and Kallithea tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Kallithea in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Levadiakos run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Kallithea.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levadiakos beat Kallithea 4-1 at Stadio Levadias, Relegation Round - 7, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 1.38 xG and Kallithea 1.00 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Levadiakos beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 0.92 / defence 1.18 against Kallithea attack 0.77 / defence 1.18, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 46% | Draw 27% | Kallithea 27%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 50%, Kallithea 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Kallithea's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Levadiakos 1.28 PPG, Kallithea 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levadiakos win broke the near-deadlock. Levadiakos (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm. Kallithea (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.